Central QLD Forecaster Notes by Steve Shearer (updated on Mon Feb 24th)

This week and next week (Feb24-Mar7)

Central QLD: Plenty of action as TC Alfred moves through the Coral Sea

Heaps of surf ahead.

A very long and broad tradewind fetch is anchored on a NW/SE axis by twin tropical cyclones. TC Alfred is meandering in the Coral Sea NE of Cairns, while TC Rae is NW of Fiji and moving south-south westwards. A broad high in the Tasman is supplying good support for these systems, with a new reinforcing high expected to move into the Tasman tomorrow and fulfil the same role. The trade-wind fetch is relatively robust and will be a long-lasting swell producer for the east coast, favouring sub-tropical areas for size. Confidence is low on the track for TC Alfred and thus it’s surf potential- a general slow southwards movement is expected which is favourable but we may still see a coastal crossing before the cyclone reaches it’s full potential as a surf generator. Much uncertainty still remains so stay tuned to notes and below the line comments through the week. 

We should see fun waves through the week with a slow increase expected from either later Wed or into Thurs as TC Alfred drifts southwards.

Into the weekend and everything depends on the movement of TC Alfred. 

EC has the system penetrating further south, with the southern extent of the wind field generating large E’ly swells through the region, possibly with onshore gales if the system crosses the Wide Bay to SEQLD coast. 

GFS has the system remaining further north, potentially with a more northerly CQ/Wide Bay crossing. That would see less headroom for surf and less chances for onshore gales.

At this stage it’s probably most realistic to expect a solid increase in E’ly swell into the first week of autumn hopefully not accompanied by howling onshores.

More E swell looks likely as the trade belt shows no sign of relaxing into the first week of March.

Check back Wed for the latest updates.