Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 26th Feb)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• More typical summer surf Thurs/Fri with a blend of E/NE and NE swells under NE winds
• Should see an increase in flukey E/NE cyclone swell from TC Rae Fri holding into Sat AM
• More E/NE swell filtering down from tropics into the weekend likely with size remaining modest
• Shallow troughy S wind changes Fri PM and Sun PM
• Next week dependent on movement of TC Alfred, a small increase likely at this stage- stay tuned for updates 
• E/NE swells persist into next week from residual trade fetch in South Pacific

Recap

Small surf from the S/SE yesterday with clean conditions before mod/fresh S’lies blew out most spots. Clean-ish conditions on offer this morning under light winds although there is a little leftover bump from yesterday’s S’lies. We’ve got a small blend of surf with E/NE swells filtering down from the tropics showing up. All told, there’s a few waves on the beachies with surf to 2ft. We’ll see winds swing E then NE through the day. 

A bit of leftover bump but still some fun beachies on offer

This week (Feb26-28)

High pressure is in the Tasman with three tropical cyclones currently on the map. TC Alfred is in the Coral Sea, currently about a 1000km NE of Mackay and slow moving, expected to slowly track southwards from today. TC Rae has sped off SE to the graveyard and TC Seru is located between Vanuatu and Fiji and moving S/SE. In this complex brew,  we’ll see multiple swell trains from the NE-E quadrant, although large swells are becoming increasingly unlikely as models firm on a coastal crossing for TC Alfred (still uncertainty over this track!) and the South Pacific cyclones track south-eastward, then eastwards as dissipating systems. 

In the short run and leading into the weekend the outlook is fairly straightforwards for temperate NSW. Local winds tend N’ly then NE’ly through tomorrow and then freshen on Fri as a trough approaches.

A small blend of E/NE and NE swells tomorrow supply surf in the 2ft range- best early before the wind gets up. There will be some traces of flukey S swell in the water that may supply a few 2ft sets at the better S magnets- possibly worth working around when the wind gets up.

Fri should offer a little more of both E/NE swell- a mix of trade swell and longer period swells from TC Rae when it tracked southwards into the swell window Mon. Models showed the system a little weaker than expected and it was only moving in the right direction for 24hrs or so but we should still see some inconsistent 2-3ft surf and a rogue bigger set is a possibility. Background E/NE swell and NE windswell should do most of the heavy lifting though with similar sized 2-3ft surf. The S’ly change now looks to arrive on dark or just after - but we’ll finesse that on Fri.

This weekend (Mar 1-2)

Friday’s S’ly change runs out of steam quickly into Sat, with a light morning SW flow tending to E’ly then NE’ly breezes. We may even see the Hunter NW before NE winds freshen, depending on where the trough stalls and washes out. Either way, another day of small blended surf with a few longer period E/NE sets in the mix to 2-3ft but easing, small E/NE swells and some minor short range S swell. Nothing too energetic but there should be a few fun beachies on hand.

N’lies get up on Sun as another shallow trough approaches. We should see mod/fresh N-NE winds with some minor NE windswell and small E/NE swell again, totalling surf in the 2-3ft range. Winds may tend variable around the trough in the a’noon. We’ll see how that looks on Fri.

Next week (Mar 3 onwards)

Next week’s surf outlook still depends on the eventual track of TC Alfred. Model consistency has improved, suggesting a CQ coastal crossing, with only small E/NE swells continuing for temperate NSW. Latest EC and ACCESS runs are suggesting a more southward position for TC Alfred early next week bringing large swells to SEQLD and NENSW, grading smaller south of Seal Rocks. 

GFS has the system moving straight in for a CQ crossing early next week (see below).

At minimum we’ll see more fun sized E/NE swell into next week as the remnants of TC Seru look to drift eastwards and maintain a firm trade fetch over the weekend. 

Frontal progressions late next week may generate some S’ly groundswell- possibly sizey- although mostly sideband energy is expected. 

Let’s see how it looks on Fri.

Seeya then!