Small surf in Southern NSW for the foreseeable future
Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 16th September)
Best Days: Sat AM: small mix of clean south swells
Recap: Small southerly swells on Thursday delivered 2ft waves about south facing beaches in Sydney, whilst a small unexpected E/NE swell - from a poorly aligned N/NW fetch off the Mid North Coast Wednesday night - created a brief period of peaky waves at remaining beaches early morning, before fading through the day. A small increase today provided bigger sets near 3ft at south facing beaches, with the magnetic properties of the Hunter Coast reporting 3-5ft sets at times (see image below). Conditions have been great with offshore winds.
Pumping lines of S'ly swell in Newcastle this morning, courtesy Dave Anderson. See the bloke paddling up the face? More photos here.
This weekend (Saturday 17th - Sunday 18th)
We’ve had an unfortunate curveball for the weekend.
Saturday is expected to remain similar to Wednesday’s notes, with trailing leftovers from today plus a minor reinforcing mid-range south swell from a weak front in the southern Tasman Sea this morning.
South facing beaches are looking at inconsistent 2ft+ sets (bigger in the Hunter around 3ft+) but it’ll be much smaller elsewhere and surf size will ease throughout the afternoon. Early light offshore winds will precede a moderate to fresh afternoon sea breeze from the NE.
A cold front that was expected to track north-east of Bass Strait on Saturday - via Wednesday’s model guidance - has been wiped off the charts in the latest runs, which means we essentially have no new swell on the cards for Sunday.
As such, don’t expect much, if any size at all at most beaches - even south swell magnets will probably struggle to pull in much more than a slow 1-1.5ft (with slightly bigger waves across the Hunter).
Overnight N’ly winds are expected to swing NW on Sunday morning ahead of a gusty W’ly change early Sunday evening, associated with a complex trough of low pressure crossing the south-eastern corner of the country.
But surf prospects look very small indeed for the second half of the weekend. So if you’re going to surf at all in the coming days, make it Saturday morning, and aim for the most expected south swell magnet you can think of.
Next week (Monday 19th onwards)
There’s all kinds of potential showing on the charts for early next week but given the erratic nature of the recent model runs, I’m hesitant to have any confident beyond Sunday.
Our possible swell sources include a small NE windswell on Monday (from a N’ly fetch developing off the Mid North Coast late Sunday), and a small short range S’ly swell later Monday or Tuesday from a return southerly fetch developing close to the coast as the broader surface trough pushes east into the Tasman Sea.
There’s a fair chance that neither sources will result in anything newsworthy but keep an eye on the comments (below) over the weekend for upgrade potential.
Another complex trough will approach from the west later Tuesday or Wednesday, strengthening northerly winds about the NSW coast (again, a possible short range NE windswell source) ahead of a strong southerly change late Wednesday that’s currently on the cards; at least in model-land, anyway.
Such developments would lead to a large south swell for Thursday and Friday but again, confidence is only low on this scenario. Let's wait to see how Monday's runs are looking.
That’s about as far as it’s worth discussing right now, as I think we’re going to see some major revisions in the model data over the coming days so speculating on long term possibilities is a risky proposition right now.
See you Monday.. have a great weekend!
Comments
Bummer 'bout the weekend, eh?
Illawarra Sth swell magnets didn't get much out of past couple of days Ben, if anything Wednesday seemed to have the most size down here. Thursday & Friday were very small & dribbly . The swell seemed to have more east in it than south.Hanging out for something with a bit more power. See what you can do for us, Ben. Cheers!
Yeah amazing the size difference across Southern NSW under directional south swells, eh?
spring is well and truly here, coldest water and consistently smallest waves.
Small and clean across Sydney beaches in the 2ft range, but holy guacamole! The Hunter is pumping this AM once again, with nicely defined 3-4ft sets.
Bondi:
Newcastle:
Scored yesterday with 4ft + winding barrels on offer, with offshores & not too many in the lineup! Lets see what's on offer t'day! Stoked from yesterday!!
Surfed 2 days in a row on the cenny coast at two different beachies. Both were straight handlers of dead south swell on the high tide. Banks are rubbish at the moment
Surfed early am near catho and it was a solid 4-5 foot on the sets, or at least twice as big as I was expecting. Got out around 9 30 and the wind had already swung east after being westerly all morn. Any updates in the waves forecast for Sunday swell in the Hunter thermalben?
It was significantly bigger than the forecasted 1ft this morning at a south facing beach on the far south coast, Ben. The bigger sets were inconsistent but some were easily 3ft+.
Really? Didn't look like much more than 1-2ft in Sydney (forecast was 1-1.5ft, bigger in the Hunter). Odd that the Far South Coast would be performing better at the tail end of a swell event too.
Yeah, Ben, I was pretty surprised. This beach juts out into the ocean and faces almost straight south so it's often a bit bigger than forecast but I thought that discrepancy - especially, as you said, on the far south coast on the tail end of a southerly swell - was interesting.
Has there been a bump in size on the NB this arvo or did I just see a freak set?
Yeah I surfed Palmy yesterday morning and was 2ft with infrequent 3ft bombs.
Solid set just pushed through Bondi.
Hmm, the trough that pushed off the coast last night displayed an unexpectedly strong E/NE fetch aimed towards the South Coast; though it was tracking rapidly east (i.e. out of the swell window).
We probably won't see much of a spread northwards (i.e. into the Sydney/Hunter coasts), but from Wollongong south - especially Far Southern NSW - there's certainly a chance for a brief pulse of solid surf. Hard to estimate size but I wouldn't be surprised if we saw 3-4ft+ sets out of the E/NE way down south.
Plus, most south facing beaches in Southern NSW should see a building S'ly swell today from the return S'ly flow on the trough's western flank (which only developed off the Far South Coast early this morning). Should reach around 3ft+ through the afternoon with a few bigger sets across the Hunter.
Looks like the new south swell is already kicking in, actually. Easy to identify the short range nature too (swell lines stacked close together, as per second image).
Good 3ft sets at Bondi now.
Banks were heaps better with this short range swell
Think that's more the peakier nature of the swell than the banks :)
Jeez, pushing 4ft now at Bondi.
it was closing out a fair bit at tama. nice out in the building swell with a strong offshore.