Indian Ocean Basin analysis by Craig Brokensha (issued Thursday 27th February)

This week through next (Feb 28 - Mar 7)

We should see an inconsistent SW groundswell peaking across the region today, with it due to ease tomorrow morning.

Our reinforcing pulse of mid-period S/SW swell for later tomorrow and more so Saturday came in nicely across Margaret River yesterday and with this, expect a fun kick in size across eastern Indonesia before easing into next week.

Follow up pulses of inconsistent S/SW swell for later Sunday but more so Monday through Wednesday look a touch smaller than Sunday’s even though the models are showing more size.

The source is unfavourably aligned frontal systems firing up to the south west of Western Australia yesterday and today, with a touch less size due than that on Saturday.

Otherwise the next pulse of decent swell is due later in the week, generated by a healthy polar front projecting up towards Western Australia and our region Sunday/Monday.

This should generate a moderate + sized pulse of S/SW swell that looks to be the best of the period, easing slowly into next weekend.

Local winds still look variable over the period though weak, afternoon E/SE-SE trades are expected into the weekend and early next week, weakening through the middle to end of the week.

In the Mentawais, the south swells formed off the south-west of Western Australia unfortunately don’t look to offer much size for the region with a small pulse due over the weekend with some secondary swell for early next week.

The swell for later next week looks better but still only moderate in size.

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Maldives:

The outlook for the Maldives is really slow with no major sources of swell from the south or south-east due until later next week.

The healthy storm projecting towards Western Australia Sunday should produce a fun S’ly swell for next Friday afternoon, with some better S/SE trade-swell likely to follow next weekend and into the following week.

Eastern Indonesia:

Small to moderate sized, mid-period S/SW swell for later tomorrow, peaking Saturday to 4-5ft across exposed breaks, easing Sunday.

Small to moderate sized, inconsistent S/SW swell for later Sunday, peaking Monday to 3-5ft across exposed breaks.

Secondary, similar sized reinforcing swell for Tuesday, easing Wednesday.

Moderate + sized, mid-period S/SW swell for Friday to 6ft+ across exposed breaks.

Variable winds ahead of weak sea breezes, with afternoon E/SE trades into the weekend and early next week.

Uluwatu 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Western Indonesia/Mentawais/South Sumatra:

Small, inconsistent S’ly swell for the weekend and early next week to 3-4ft across exposed breaks.

Moderate sized, mid-period S’ly swell for Friday to 4-5ft+ across exposed breaks.

Variable winds, tending W’ly through later Monday to Wednesday, NW Thursday.

Mentawai 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Maldives:

Small mix of swells from the NE to S over the coming days, with weak levels of SE trade-swell next week.

Small to moderate sized S’ly swell to 3-4ft on the southern atolls next Friday afternoon, easing Saturday.

Building S/SE trade-swell from Sunday week.

Moderate to fresh NE winds tomorrow across central and northern locations, W-W/SW to the south.

Strengthening W’ly winds across the southern atolls on the weekend, variable to the north. Fresh W/NW-NW winds across all locations Monday, easing Tuesday and tending E across northerly locations, variable later week.