Victorian forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday February 28th)

Best Days: Today ahead of the afternoon change, Surf Coast tomorrow morning, dawn Sunday Surf Coast, exposed beaches Tuesday and Wednesday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Moderate sized W/SW swell for later today and tomorrow AM, easing with light W/NW winds, tending S/SW early PM and freshening
• Mod-large W/SW groundswell filling in rapidly Sun (undersized early), peaking in the PM, easing Mon
• Freshening S/SW winds Sun AM, light W/NW for a period early on the Surf Coast
• Gusty S/SE winds Mon
• Easing swell Tue mixed in with SE windswell with strong but easing E/NE winds
• Small mix of easing swells Wed with N/NE winds ahead of a PM S/SW change

Recap

Light winds and small surf offered OK waves across all locations yesterday morning, while sea breezes were relatively weak as well.

Some new swell started to show into the afternoon and this has peaked this morning with clean conditions and good 3ft sets on the Surf Coast with 4-5ft waves to the east.

Winds look to remain favourable until mid-afternoon for the Surf Coast ahead of a strong, late S/SW change, while the Mornington Peninsula and Phillip Island were best early before deteriorating.

This weekend and next week (Feb 29 - Mar 7)

One pulse down, two to come.

The current swell is the first in a series of swells due over the coming days, generated by a healthy, strengthening progression of storms firing up towards Western Australia and then moving under the country.

Later today but more so tomorrow morning, our secondary pulse of W/SW swell energy is due, with more size expected thanks to the frontal progression linked to it being stronger in nature.

A good fetch of strong to near-gale-force W-W/NW winds passing under Western Australia yesterday generated the swell, with good 3ft to occasionally 4ft sets due on the Surf Coast magnets, 6ft to the east.

Local winds look great for the Surf Coast again, light W/NW-NW through the morning before shifting S’ly early-mid afternoon and strengthening thereafter.

We then look at the third and final pulse of groundswell due into Sunday, with this coming in the strongest of all.

This is being generated by a strong though fast moving low moving in from the west with fetches of gale to nearly severe-gale W-W/NW winds due to produce a moderate + sized pulse of swell that’s due to arrive Sunday morning and peak around 4-5ft on the Surf Coast magnets with 6ft to occasionally 8ft sets to the east (smaller early morning).

The only issue are the local winds, with a trough expected to bring a S/SW change shortly after dawn, with a period of W/NW breezes due early on the Surf Coast ahead of the bulk of the swell energy.

Monday looks like a lay day with gusty S/SE winds due in the wake of the trough moving through Sunday as the W/SW swell eases, with Tuesday/Wednesday still looking the pick for the exposed beaches as winds shift slowly around to the E/NE on the former (strong through the morning) before easing into the afternoon.

Swell wise a mix of easing mid-period W/SW swell and SE windswell is expected on the Surf Coast Tuesday, dropping from a peaky 3ft with 4-5ft sets to the east, with Wednesday coming in smaller with 1-2ft leftovers on the Surf Coast and 2-3ft sets to the east under a N/NE offshore ahead of an afternoon, S/SW change.

Longer term we’re expected to see an incoming frontal progression from the South West of Western Australia weakening while moving towards us next week, bringing a moderate sized increase in W/SW swell, but local levels of SE windswell look to dominate when it arrives. More on this Monday. Have a great weekend!