Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 28th Feb)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Should see an increase in flukey E/NE cyclone swell from TC Rae Fri holding into Sat AM
• More E/NE swell filtering down from tropics into the weekend likely with size remaining modest
• Shallow troughy S wind changes Fri PM and Sun PM
• Next week still dependent on movement of TC Alfred, likely to see increasing S-SE winds Mon and Tues 
• A mix of SE swells and E/NE swells into early next week
• Still potential for surf to become sizey from the E if TC Alfred continues southwards
• Slow moving TC Alfred next week or sub-tropical descendant sends large swells to sub-tropics, smaller in temperate NSW

Recap

Nothing amazing surf-wise for the region since Wed with a small blend of E/NE and NE swells topping out in the 2ft range (very occ. bigger set). Conditions have been clean or semi-clean in the morning with a light N’ly flow before winds kick up from the N-NE in the a’noon. A S’ly change is just pushing through the Far South Coast and is expected to reach Sydney just before dark.

Still only very modest swells from the tropics- just enough for a grovel before work

This weekend (Mar 1-2)

No great change to the weekend forecast. In the Coral Sea, Severe TC Alfred (currently borderline Cat4 central pressure 956hPa, expected to weaken to Cat 3 during the day) is crawling slowly SE to Southwards. TC Seru is SE of New Caledonia and weakening to tropical storm status through today as it slowly moves south-eastwards and then stalls. Across Southern NSW we’ll see the trough that brings tonight’s S’ly change quickly stall and dissipate through tomorrow. 

Expect a morning SW flow, tending S then SE and clocking around N/NE through the a’noon with winds freshening to mod and even fresh paces. The majority of the cyclonic swell energy will be focussed on the tropics and sub-tropics with only more of the same small blend of swells for temperate NSW. That will see more 2ft surf through Sat, possibly boosting a notch with NE windswell in the a’noon- but not adding more than a foot of short period swell energy into the mix (2-3ft).

Similar winds into Sun morning. O/night winds look to keep a signal of NE windswell into Sun morning, in the 2-3ft range, mixed with better quality inconsistent 2ft surf filtering down from the tropics. Another trough is expected to bring a shallow S/SE change early/mid a’noon, with a small signal of short range swell adding low quality junky surf to 2ft from that direction by nightfall. 

Next week (Mar 3 onwards)

OK. Under current modelling, most major models have TC Alfred, or a sub-tropical cyclonic descendant of it, slow moving off the SEQLD coast early next week. That leads to high confidence for an extended period of very large surf in the sub-tropics, possibly of an historic nature in terms of size and duration. 

There’s still some uncertainty surrounding more temperate areas. Sunday’s trough may deepen initially and focus winds from a new dominant high moving from the Bight across Tasmania. This would see mod/fresh S-S/SE winds develop Mon and building swells through Mon and Tues from this local Tasman sea source, potentially into the 3-4ft range. We’ll also see better quality E/NE swells into the mix from TC Seru and it’s residual fetch into the 3ft range.

Depending on the still highly uncertain movement of TC Alfred, which is expected to become erratic during this timeframe with all options still on the table including a SEQLD/Wide Bay coastal crossing, we may see the lower wind-field of Alfred or ex-Alfred become continuous with the developing SE-E/SE fetch along the trough line. 

Under that scenario, we’d see large to XL swells for the sub-tropics and building swells for temperate NSW from the SE-E/SE with SE winds.

Size provisionally in the 4-6ft range. 

Confidence remains very low though as we head into the second half of next week due to the erratic movement expected from the cyclone or sub-tropical hybrid system it may evolve into. 

If you are chasing sub-tropical point surf at the classic locations it may be a good time to consider a road trip or quick flight- notwithstanding the fact that even most of those waves may be over-powered during the peak of the swell.

Other-wise, watch this space, we’ll update below the line (in QLD notes) as information comes to hand.

Seeya Mon and have a great weekend!