Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Guy Dixon (issued Christmas Day - Friday 25th December)

Best Days: Sunday at protected southern corners. Possibly late Monday and early Tuesday.

Recap: 

A fun southeasterly swell was in the water on Thursday providing options in the 2-3ft range, larger across the Hunter. However, a persistent southeasterly breeze has an impact on the quality, leading to crumbly short rides.

Today we have a similar story, with 2-3ft options breaking along the metro beaches, slightly bigger further north. Again, a seabreeze is having an impact on the quality, but the surf remains generally workable and fun.

This weekend (Boxing Day Saturday 26th - Sunday 27th):

A steady stream of peaky east/northeasterly trade-swell generated by a Tasman ridge is expected to hold in the 2-3ft range, throughout Boxing Day, with the odd 3ft+ set in the mix. This should be the perfect excuse to take out any new additions to the quiver.

A north/northeasterly breeze is likely to dominate throughout the day, the same breeze which will aid the Sydney to Hobart yachts down the NSW coast for the early stages of the race. The morning will offer the lightest winds, so hit it early for the cleanest conditions.

As the afternoon progresses, this north/northeasterly airflow will increase causing conditions to deteriorate at the spots picking up the most size.

A gusty southerly change is still on track to move up the coast overnight, passing Sydney sometime close to midnight.

The change doesn’t look quite as strong as previous model runs, however the southerly breezes in its wake are likely to sustain throughout Sunday remaining fairly blowy. As a result, the outlook is similar to the previous forecast, with bumpy, wind affected surf building to the 3-4ft range across south facing beaches by the afternoon.

Protected southern corners of the open beaches look to be the way to go on Sunday, although by that stage, a lot of the east/northeasterly swell from earlier in the weekend will have dried up. Open beaches should be left with options in the 2ft range early, easing throughout the afternoon.

Next week (From Monday 28th onward):

A southeasterly airflow will continue across much of the NSW coast on Monday, although much lighter than the day before. I wouldn’t expect conditions to be anything special, with plenty of lump and bump in the mix. However, south facing beaches should still have a 2-3ft wave in the morning, easing thereafter.

Unfortunately, the southeasterly fetch stretching from southern NZ to the NSW coast which held promise for a fun southeasterly swell has also been significantly downgraded. This fetch now looks weaker and aligned more to northern NSW.

The prevailing swell direction is expected so swing slowly around the southeast throughout the week, however we no longer expect to see any significant size, but instead a slow easing trend following the change.

A small low has the potential to form off the west coast of New Zealand’s South Island, possibly generating a small amount of southeasterly swell to accompany the southerly energy in the water from the aforementioned system.

Tuesday is likely to see the swell fade from the 2ft range, with a tiny amount of southerly groundswell also in the water generated by core fetches over the Southern Ocean associated with Saturday nights change. 

South swell magnets may pick up hints of southerly groundswell, but undersized and insignificant.

On the plus side, winds are looking light/variable-southeasterly early, tending light/moderate northeasterly in the afternoon. You should be able to snag a small clean wave in the morning in you’re keen.

Moving into the later stages of the week, all swell windows should quiet down, allowing each swell source to slowly fade. The southeasterly swell will remain the most dominant source of energy, fading from the 1-2ft range throughout Wednesday. 

Again, winds look to be light early, increasing form the northeast later.

Merry Christmas everyone.