Weak high pressure and a monsoon trough across the Top End linked to a monsoon low in the Gulf are leading to very light winds across the Coral Sea and tiny/flat surf.
A deeper fetch slingshotting NE from the Southern Ocean brings a much stronger S swell pulse Mon.
We've got a good swell inbound along with an improvement in the local winds.
A broad area of low pressure drifts NE to be close to Lord Howe Island on Mon, with ESE-E winds on the southern flank of the low pressure area. That system does look to persist in the Tasman at least until the middle of next week, generating fun sized SE-E swells. It's not a tremendously tight squeeze between the low and a high drifting E of Tasmania but it will be persistent enough to generate fun surf.
Light winds and clean conditions down South tomorrow, poor Sunday. A mix of W/SW and SW swells will fill in from the middle of next week.
We’ve got reasonable model agreement now on the trough of low pressure in the Tasman early next week. A broad area of low pressure drifts NE to be close to Lord Howe Island on Mon, with ESE-E winds on the southern flank of the low pressure area. That system does look to persist in the Tasman at least until the middle of next week, generating fun sized SE-E swells.
The current swell event will become smaller into the weekend but there are windows of lighter winds for all locations. It'll become more active mid-late next week again.
Expect tiny surf to continue over the weekend and into early next week as a trough off NSW disrupts the tradewind flow from a new high drifting into the Tasman.
The high moves rapidly NE into the Tasman next week and that puts us back into NE windswell territory as winds increase off the South Coast and down to Bass Strait.
The complex low pressure gyre is slowly moving under Tasmania with the majority of any swell generating winds in the swell shadow of Tasmania. Hot air being dragged down from tropical Australia is now slowly being displaced by the cooler air from the Southern Ocean and driving a synoptic W’ly flow across temperate NSW with the sub-tropics still subject to hot, Spring-like N’lies.
