South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 8th March)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Small S swell only showing at NENSW S facing beaches Thurs-Sun
• Long range E swell supplies small inconsistent sets Fri-Sun
• Troughy pattern brings variable winds Thurs and this weekend- check back Fri for latest wind f/casts
• Tricky, troughy outlook continues into next week
• Small S groundswell expected Mon/Tues- favouring NENSW
• Tracking possible low pressure in the South Pacific later next week- stay tuned for revisions

Recap

N’ly winds have confined clean surf to backbeaches for the most part since Mon.Yesterday saw mostly E swell in the 2-3ft range with the Sunshine Coast beachbreaks the best of it. Today has dropped a notch with surf mostly 2ft ( a few 3footers around) with light N’ly winds and some serviceable waves at backbeaches.

Sunshine Coast beachies again see the best conditions

This week (Mar8-10)

The complex low pressure gyre is slowly moving under Tasmania with the majority of any swell generating winds in the swell shadow of Tasmania. Hot air being dragged down from tropical Australia is now slowly being displaced by the cooler air from the Southern Ocean and driving a synoptic W’ly flow across temperate NSW with the sub-tropics still subject to hot, Spring-like N’lies.

In the short run we’ll see a trough working it’s way up the coast, reaching Coffs by first light, before stalling around Ballina-Byron. That will see SW-S winds south of the trough line, variable winds around Far NENSW and light N’lies (NW on the Gold Coast) in SEQLD. Surf-wise expect continuing small E swell in the 2ft range. 

The trough looks to linger on Fri morning with a variable/offshore flow for most of the region before a weak high rushes into the Tasman bringing a mod SE-E flow to the region. More small E swell in the 2ft range with marginal S swell and some longer range E swell from the remnants of TC’s Judy and Kevin arrives, producing a few 2ft+ sets. Nothing great but there should be glassy beachies for the morning.

This weekend (Mar 11-12)

High pressure moving rapidly NE in the Tasman o/night Friday should see strengthening NE winds off the Mid North Coast to Ballina region, with lighter, troughier winds in SEQLD. No great size expected with more long range inconsistent E swell to 2ft on the cards and some small S swell to 2ft at S facing beaches in NENSW.

Very tricky outlook for Sun as another trough tracks north through the region, almost certain to reach Coffs mid morning before stalling again on the Far North Coast. Variable winds are likely across most of the region through the morning before tending N’ly in SEQLD, SE-E south of Byron-Ballina but this is highly uncertain so keep tabs on local winds Sun and check Fri’s notes for a final finesse. More long range E quadrant swell Sun, up a notch with 2-3ft sets, with long waits between them and some small S swell filling in the gaps- not more than 2ft at S facing beaches.

Next week (Mar13 onwards)

Tricky little pattern now on the radar for early next week and it’s likely we’ll have to take model outputs with a grain of salt right now. Sketching out the basic pattern we’re looking at Sundays trough forming a broad trough of low pressure/closed low in the Central/Northern Tasman. A NE infeed into this system looks too be aimed at areas from Coffs Southwards so small E/NE swell for there with continuing small mixed bag for areas further north. 

Also in the mix later Mon into Tues will be some longer period swell from a last passing frontal progression in the lower Tasman, with sets likely to fill into the 2-3ft range at S facing beaches in NENSW, smaller 2ft in SEQLD.

Depending on the position of the broad low we may see winds tend SSE-E Mon and more SE’ly Tues, with small swells likely from the NE to SE depending on where the low ends up and some background energy from the Coral Sea in the 2ft range. 

Another trough line approaching the coast Wed may see winds shift S’ly although there’s a fair bit of model divergence over that outcome.

Further ahead and the schizoid pattern continues as a strong front and low approach from the Southern Ocean and a tropical depression drifts south into the South Pacific slot or even Coral Sea . Both of those may be useful swell generating sources by next weekend, but with so much instability to get through in the short term it’s highly likely we’ll see substantial revision on Fri.

Check back then for the latest.