Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 10th March)

Best Days: Saturday morning, early Sunday, Thursday, Friday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Smaller levels of S/SW swell tomorrow and Sun, ahead of a reinforcing pulse Mon
• Variable, tending local offshore winds tomorrow AM ahead of sea breezes, then freshening S/SW into the PM
• Variable winds Sun AM, freshening from the S/SW, tending S
• Moderate S/SE winds Mon
• Easing surf Tue with variable E/NE tending N/NW winds, then SW
• Moderate sized SW groundswell for Wed PM with SW winds, holding Thu with gusty N/NW winds, tending S/SW late PM

Recap

Pumping Surf Coast waves yesterday thanks to a new pulse of large S/SW swell, with the biggest, cleanest day in a long time impacting the region. Magnets were in the 6-8ft range with the rare bigger bomb, over my expectations especially with Wednesday coming in a little slow and listless comparatively.

Conditions were excellent through the morning, a little windy into the afternoon but still good with a bit less size.

Today the surf is easing slowly from the 4ft range on the Surf Coast magnets, with 4-5ft sets to the east, but again cleanest to the west.

Bomb sets yesterday (Scanlon)

This weekend and next week (Mar 11 - 17)

We've still got plenty of smaller swell inbound out of the S/SW through the weekend and early next week, though with less power and also trickier winds.

The current energy will continue to ease this afternoon, dropping tomorrow to 3ft on the Surf Coast magnets thanks to a persistent fetch of patchy W/SW-SW winds to the south-west of Tasmania. Most other spots will be 2ft with less consistent 3ft'ers. To the east it looks to be 3-4ft on the magnets.

One final intensification of more consolidated SW winds during tomorrow afternoon and evening should produce a final pulse of mid-period S/SW swell for late Sunday but more so Monday morning.

This should maintain 3ft sets into Monday morning on the Surf Coast, 4ft to the east before easing through the day and becoming smaller Tuesday.

Winds tomorrow morning look variable, tending light, locally offshore across most regions, with a light onshore kicking in late morning ahead of a fresher S/SW change as a trough clips us.

Sunday morning is likely to see a period of variable winds across both coasts with 2-3ft waves on the Surf Coast, 3-4ft to the east, with a freshening S/SW tending S'ly breeze developing mid-morning. Monday will unfortunately see moderate S/SE winds lingering in the wake of Sunday's trough, spoiling the new S/SW swell.

Tuesday is a dicey one, with the remnants of the trough on Monday due to form a small low pressure centre, resulting in S tending variable winds to the west as it pushes west, with E/NE tending N/NW winds on the Mornington Peninsula.

The swell will be on the ease with fading 2ft+ sets on the Surf Coast, 2-3ft to the east.

Into the end of the week we should see a good pulse of new SW groundswell as a strengthening low drops south-east under the country while generating a fetch of strong to gale-force W/NW winds.

The slow movement of the low should produce an extended peak through Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning, coming in at 3-4ft on the Surf Coast and 6ft to the east. An approaching trough looks to bring gusty N/NW winds ahead of a late afternoon S/SW change on Thursday, possibly W/NW Friday morning ahead of further frontal activity but we'll have a closer look at this on Monday. Have a great weekend!