South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 10th March)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Small S swell only showing at NENSW S facing beaches Sat-Sun
• Long range E swell supplies small inconsistent sets Sat-Sun
• Light winds Sat AM, tending NE
• Tricky winds Sun as trough hovers over area, likely W-NW, with late SW-S winds South of Yamba
• Small S groundswell expected Mon/Tues- favouring NENSW
• Low in Tasman next week brings fun SE-ESE swell Mon-Thurs with SE winds easing from Tues
• Tracking possible low pressure in the South Pacific/Coral Sea later next week- stay tuned for revisions

Recap

Pulsey and tidally affected E swells have seen variable surf through yesterday with mostly 2ft waves reported and periods of much stronger 3ft pulses at favourable tidal phases. Winds were light/variable all day yesterday as a trough stalled out just south of the QLD border. Today has seen smaller surf, mostly E swell, topping out at 2ft, with traces of S swell in the mix in NENSW. Light winds early tended S’ly south of the border before clocking around E/NE-NE in the a’noon. 

Sunshine Coast beachies again looking fun with slack winds

This weekend (Mar 11-12)

No much change for the weekend f/cast- high pressure moves NE in the Tasman bringing a NE flow.  Cleanest early under W-NW winds before nor-easters kick in again through the day and confine clean options to backbeaches. There’ll be some small  easing S swell in the mix to 2ft at S facing beaches early. Also in the mix will be more long range E/SE swell from the remnants of TC’s Judy and Kevin which sat on the far side of the North Island this week. Swells from this source have consistently over-performed so we’ll run with model output to 2-3ft and keep tabs open for some bigger sets- nothing requiring a bigger board though.

Sunday will see a tricky wind outlook as a trough line hovers off the Far North Coast, linked to a developing trough of low pressure off the Hunter/Mid North Coast. Variable/offshore winds likely early for most places, tending N’ly in SEQLD, and into Far Northern NSW, before a S’ly change extends from the South, up to Coffs and possibly Yamba by nightfall. Keep tabs on local winds though as winds are likely to swirl around in the trough line and any stalling or speeding up will see wind shifts. They should be workable for most of the day with continuing E swell to inconsistent 2ft+ and some small S swell in the mix in NENSW. 

Next week (Mar13 onwards)

We’ve got reasonable model agreement now on the trough of low pressure in the Tasman early next week. A broad area of low pressure  drifts NE to be close to Lord Howe Island on Mon, with ESE-E winds on the southern flank of the low pressure area. That system does look to persist in the Tasman at least until the middle of next week, generating fun sized SE-E swells. It's not a tremendously tight squeeze between the low and a high drifting E of Tasmania but it will be persistent enough to generate fun surf.

Expect building SSE-SE swell Mon after a slow, under-sized start with winds from the same direction. Early size in the 2ft range will build to 2-3ft and be augmented by longer period S swell from a final frontal slingshot belt Tasmania Fri/Sat. That will be hard to detect in the prevailing sea state.

Winds moderate Tues and tend to mod SE’ly breezes- possibly SW inshore from the Southern Gold Coast to Coffs. Swell from the low tends by degrees to the E/SE as the system slowly contracts to the NE. Along with continuing longer period S swell there’ll be at least 3-4ft of mixed S and (dominant) ESE swell in the water. Quality will be the issue with the onshore flow, with smaller, cleaner options on the Points.

Pressure gradients should ease enough Wed AM for a morning offshore flow- likely W-SW across most of the region before lighter S to SE breezes kick in. Continuing ESE-E swell in the 3ft range along with small leftover S swells should see fun options across the beachbreaks with more seasonal winds supplying clean morning conditions before SE winds confine clean conditions to the Points.

Thursday looks similar with an easing trend and lighter winds.

By the end of next week we’ll be in an easing pattern as the low dissipates. Small leftovers are on offer Fri with light winds. Should be a fun mop up.

Longer term and Sat looks small while a frontal progression looks to bring S swell into Sun. Certain model runs show this progression to be significant so we may be in for a run of S swell pulses from next Sun.

We’ll also keep eyes on a potential low pressure system retrograding into the Coral Sea/Northern Tasman later next week- which would be a source of quality E swell early the following week 20/3.

Check back Mon and we’ll see how those potential swell sources are shaping up. 

Until then, have a great weekend!