Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Guy Dixon (issued Monday 23rd May)

Best Days: Tuesday and Wednesday

Recap: 

South facing beaches picked up workable options over the weekend, up to 2-3ft on Saturday, easing back to virtually flat conditions today. Conditions remained mostly clean throughout Saturday and Sunday morning, before giving way to a seabreeze on Sunday afternoon. Today, offshore breezes have persisted, leading to smooth seas.

This week (Tuesday 24th - Friday 27th):

A cut-off low has been developing to the east of Tasmania within a broader frontal progression which has been moving over the region today.

An elongated fetch is becoming established on the western quadrants of the low as we speak, with southwesterly fetches of 30-40kts pushing slingshotting up through the Tasman Sea. The tail end of this fetch is moving in a modest captured motion through the southern swell window (lacking ideal alignment), but should still provide a decent amount of southerly energy across south facing beaches on Tuesday.

The swell should build to the 3-5ft range across the magnets by the late afternoon on Tuesday, likely peaking overnight before easing from a similar size range on Wednesday morning.

Tuesday is likely to start off under a west/southwesterly breeze, tending southwesterly throughout the day, more so west/northwesterly on Wednesday.

As this system drifts eastward, the main swell generating fetches will become poorly aligned, with no decent systems following. Thursday will be in between swells as a result, with only background energy providing small options at south facing beaches.

Conditions should start off clean under a light west/southwesterly on Thursday, becoming southerly later.

A small scale low then looks to develop off the far South Coast of NSW, intensifying quickly late on Thursday evening and into Friday morning. Small fetches on the southern quadrants of this system have the potential to steer 25-35kt easterly fetches winds towards the state’s northeast whipping up short a small amount of mid-range energy due Friday, with open beaches picking up options in the 2ft range.

A gusty southerly breeze has the potential to impact wave quality, so protected southern corners will offer the cleanest set ups.

This weekend (Saturday 28th - Sunday 29th):

A small southeasterly fetch looks to anchor itself off the southern tip of New Zealand’s South Island, maintaining energy throughout the weekend. The surf should ebb and pulses between 2-3ft over the weekend before easing into next week.

Sunday looks to be the better day of the weekend under a light westerly flow, tending west northwesterly later. Saturday on the other hand has the potential to be hindered by a south/southeasterly breeze.