South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 9th April)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Leftover S swells Thurs AM, easing through the day with light winds tending SE
• Small, flukey S swells possibly showing in NENSW laster Fri and over the weekend (low confidence)
• Decent E'ly trade swell building from Fri, getting sizier over the weekend with SE winds favouring the Points
• Now looking more likely we’ll see an extended E swell event next week, as tropical depression drifts through the Coral Sea- still low confidence in specifics so check back Fri for the latest updates
• Possibly this E swell becomes very sizey into the end of next week

Recap

S swell showed across NENSW yesterday with S facing beaches offering up 2-3ft surf (floodwater and poor banks permitting) under light winds which tended SE in the a’noon. A tad more this morning with a few 3-4ft sets at NENSW S facing beaches (mostly less than 3ft) and SEQLD magnets showing a 2ft wave. Winds are light with SE winds expected to reach moderate paces through the a’noon although rain squalls are offering periods of lighter winds in patches. 

Swell magnets earning their money today with rain squalls keeping winds generally light

This week (Apr 9-11)

High pressure is moving into the Tasman, strengthening as it drifts towards New Zealand, where it is expected to become a dominant “flat topped” feature, reinforced by subsequent high pressure moving into the Tasman. We’ll see a long E’ly fetch develop through the South Pacific slot through the end of this week, enhanced by a trough of low pressure near New Caledonia which is attached to a still active monsoon trough. This will be the main swell source into the medium term, potentially getting sizey next week. The storm track under the continent is active but fetches are mostly zonal so we’ll only see minor, flukey long period S swell wrap at reliable NENSW S swell magnets, if at all. That storm track is further suppressed into next week by the dominant downstream blocking high pressure pattern.

In the short run, we’re only expecting a small blend of leftover S-S/SE swells and some flukey long period stuff, topping out in the 2-3ft range with a few magnets in NENSW offering an occ. 3ft+ set. Much smaller surf in SEQLD where magnets should offer up a 2ft wave. Conditions should be clean for the early with light W-SW winds, tending to mod SE winds, stronger by a notch in SEQLD. By close of play we may start to see a little perk up in E’ly swell but Fri is a better bet for this. 

Small mixed bag for Fri with another day of light/mod SE winds in NENSW, more mod/fresh in SEQLD. Through the day we’ll see E/SE-E swell from the E’ly fetch slowly up a notch, into the 2 occ. 3ft range (more 2ft!) and offering a small peeler on the Points with sand at low tide. Conditions should remain clean early, especially on the Southern Gold Coast through NENSW. 

This weekend (Apr 12-13)

Not much change for the weekend f/cast as New Zealand is straddled by two large high pressure cells with the Northern Tasman to Coral Seas and extending out into the South Pacific filled with SE-E’ly winds. The ridge looks to strengthen a notch over the weekend so SE-E/SE winds are likely to increase across the board. Sat still looks OK for a morning offshore in NENSW but by Sun those winds look more established, with only the Points offering a clean wave. 

The weekend will start on the small side but  by degrees we’ll see swells start to fill in from the E-E/SE. 

Expect 2-3ft surf through Sat, with a slow incremental increase on Sun into the 3-4ft range. Waves will filter down into more sheltered, inner points as wave size increases. 

Next week (Apr 14 onwards)

The trend will be up next week as we move into the Easter week. Another high pressure moves into the Tasman early next week to reinforce the pattern, maintaining and strengthening a strong ridge into the sub-tropics. Fairly typical for autumn. Winds should hold SE through E/SE for most of next week, at mod/fresh paces so clean surf will be likely confined to the Points. 

Model divergence through the week becomes profound in the second half of the week with GFS suggesting a large tropical depression drifting down from a position south of New Caledonia right through the wide open E swell window (see below). Under this scenario we’d see the early part of the week with fun sized E swells (3-4ft), becoming much sizier from Thurs into the weekend, potentially into the 6ft+ range or bigger. Basically a pumping E swell event leading into Easter. 

Caution is required because the much more conservative ECMWF take positions the low north of the North Island where it slips behind the North island as it develops. We’ll still see the fun first half of the week and potentially a nice pulse from the E but not to the same duration or size as the GFS resolution. 

We’ll pay close attention these model developments and report back Fri, hopefully with news of an extended sizeable swell event from the E.

Seeya then!