Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 24th September)

Best Days: Tues/Wed AM: fun S'ly swell with improving conditions. Wed PM/Thurs: solid long period S'ly swell, good winds until mid-morning Thurs. Fri: smaller and offshore. Sun: small mix of swells with light winds. 

Recap: Saturday started off small but a new long period south swell build through the day, peaking around an inconsistent 3ft across south facing beaches with larger surf across the Hunter. Wave heights eased slowly into Sunday but surface conditions were marred by developing southerly winds, which have persisted through today, building a southerly windswell on top though a new southerly groundswell is filling in underneath.

This week (Sep 25 - 28)

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We’ve got a series of overlapping southerly swells due over the coming days, generated by strong, though poorly aligned frontal activity through the Southern Tasman Sea. 

Fortunately, winds will tend light and variable on Tuesday as a ridge of high pressure pushes across the coast and into the Tasman Sea. It won’t be enough to clean up all of the lumps and bumps from today’s winds, but we’ll see a definite, though gradual improvement. 

Surf size should hold somewhere between 3ft and maybe 3-4ft at south facing beaches on Tuesday and maybe early Wednesday before easing through the morning (slightly bigger in the Hunter but smaller at beaches not open to the south).

However, during Wednesday a new long period swell will push across the region, building wave heights strongly into the afternoon that are expected to peak early Thursday with sets in the 4-6ft range at south facing beaches. Surf size will be much smaller at beaches not completely open to the south, and we'll see an easing trend from Thursday morning into the afternoon.

This swell will have been sourced from an impressive polar low pushing up towards New Zealand late Monday and through Tuesday (see below), and although not perfectly aligned within our swell window, should provide some strong energy about exposed beaches thanks to the broad, lengthy and sustained fetch. In fact, the large wavelengths associated with this event (swell periods of 16-17 seconds) should boost wave heights even further at offshore bombies and other reliable south swell magnets (i.e. the Hunter coast) into the 6-8ft+ range at times. 

The only downer is that winds are expected to swing to the north and freshen through Thursday. We’ll see a period of light NW winds but you’ll have to be quick for the best conditions. Wednesday should see favourable winds for most of the day though there is also the risk of an afternoon sea breeze.

Rapidly easing southerly groundswell from 3ft+ to 2ft at south facing beaches is expected on Friday (bigger across the Hunter, smaller elsewhere) and we’ll see some small NE windswell in the mix too, from Thursday’s freshening breezes. Winds will however be around to the NW so surface conditions will be nice and clean on top.

This weekend (Sep 29 - 30)

The weekend looks a little ordinary at this stage, but there'll be OK options for those who can't get wet mid-week.

A surface trough will push off the coast overnight into Friday, and a return southerly flow developing in its wake will build a local southerly windswell for late Saturday, peaking early Sunday with sets around 3ft at south facing beaches. 

We’ll also see a small southerly groundswell push through from a poorly aligned front south of Tasmania on Friday. This is due to arrive on Sunday but won’t be any bigger than the pre-existing short range energy. 

Saturday looks average on the surface with smaller surf, and light morning winds quickly swinging to the south and freshening. Light winds will return on Sunday as the trough pushes further into the Tasman Sea. 

So overall, aim for Sunday morning for the best waves this weekend.

Next week (Oct 1 onwards)

Just the usual Southern Ocean frontal progression and associated south swell potential for next week - nothing significant but enough to keep a close eye on. Otherwise, the trades look like they’ll get quite active through the long term period, increasing our easterly swell potential.

More on all of this in Wednesday’s notes!