Our Coral Sea low is now sitting just NE of Tasmania where it has merged with an exiting interior low to form a large, slow moving low-pressure gyre. Troughs are still snaking across Australia with a long trough line extending from the low pressure gyre through inland NSW up towards QLD and then into the Northern Territory, expected to move offshore through today. More inland troughs approach the coast during the rest of this week, driving an unstable but basically NW’ly to W’ly biased wind flow across the f/cast region through the end of the week with easing swells.
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A sub-tropical low which threatened SEQLD and NENSW over the weekend after it formed off the Capricorn coast is now steaming southwards at a fair clip, sliding along a high pressure ridge from a large (1035 hPa) high under Tasmania and dragging a strong fetch with it. The low is expected to merge with an inland low and horseshoe trough on the Gippsland Coast tomorrow forming a stalled low pressure gyre near Tasmania.
Very dynamic weekend forecast ahead as a low pressure trough forms off the CQ coast today and forms a small surface low which drifts south to hug the coast over the weekend, accelerating away to the south through early next week.
The onshore flow is enhanced into a deeper tradewind flow up in the Coral Sea, which gets a boost from a trough of low pressure expected to form off the Central QLD Coast this weekend before drifting south as a surface low, bringing sizey swell from the East and dynamic weather.
As mentioned last week we have a weak, troughy pattern in the Tasman with a broad area of high pressure now moving over the area and yet another complex low pressure system moving East across inland Australia. A series of fronts are rapidly transiting across the Lower Tasman with some small S swell pulses en route. A last pulse of E swell generated in the South Pacific is due this week.
Surf-wise we’ll be on the gradual downslope of our extended E/NE swell event. Plenty of size, albeit increasingly inconsistent to carry us over the weekend.
E’ly swell keeps chugging along this week. Despite some slow periods between pulses the ASCAT (satellite windspeed) passes shows a long, broad fetch of strong winds with gales embedded around a tropical depression. That leads to high confidence in continuing pulsey swell from that South Pacific source fetch.
Plenty of E swell ahead this week courtesy of persistent, long, broad fetch of Tradewinds in the South Pacific slot, which has had windspeeds boosted on the northern flank by a tropical depression drifting south from Fijian longitudes.
Mixed in with that will be 3ft E’ly swell, which marks the early stages of an extended swell event from the Coral Sea/South Pacific. A high pressure ridge should see mod/fresh S to SSE winds through the day, favouring the Points for clean conditions.
Strong fronts have already transited the Tasman Sea with some long period S-SSE swell pulses incoming. Those pulses will be concurrent in a more dominant building E/NE-NE windswell episode, through the rest of the week and into the weekend. Lots of action next week as both our Eastern and near Southern swell windows fire up.