South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 16th June)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Peak in small S swell early Fri, easing with W/SW tending light/mod S/SE winds
• Mostly tiny/flat over the weekend- a few waves at NENSW S swell magnets Sat
• Small/mod S swell late Tues on the MNC, stronger Wed/Thurs, easing Fri
• Small, long range E/SE swell filling in later next week/weekend

Recap

Tiny surf yesterday built in the a’noon at S facing beaches on the MNC, up into the 2ft range. This morning has seen S swell to 2-3ft across NENSW S facing beaches with some 2 footers just sneaking north of the border. Most beaches remain tiny under W’ly winds, expected to tend light S/SE through the a’noon.

Swell magnet doing it's job but still an easy run over the bar

This weekend (Jun 17-18)

OK, the continent is covered in high pressure, now drifting out over NSW into the Tasman and right across our wide swell window we’ve got very placid sea states leading to a continuation of small, weak surf. 

Light W to SW winds Sat morning will tend to E/NE to NE breezes in  the a’noon as a trough and front approach from the W but surf will be tiny. A few small leftover S swell trains are on offer supplying 2ft sets Sat morning at NENSW S swell magnets before easing.

In fact let’s not sugar coat it, we’re looking at mostly tiny/flat surf all weekend apart from a few swell magnets.

By Sunday winds will start to tend more variable to pre-frontal N’ly through the day as the trough then front passes over Southern NSW, with another decaying front behind it re-establishing a light W’ly flow. 

The most exposed swell magnets should see a tiny, surfable wave on Sun for the desperate. 

Next week (Jun 19 onwards)

Another quiet week ahead next week with a modest S swell pulse Wed/Thurs and some background E/SE swell slowly filling in through the back half of the week.

W’ly to SW’ly winds continue into Mon with tiny surf as the front pushes through, tied to a low approaching SW of Tas. This low tracks NE into the Tasman, weakening as it does so.  A high pressure cell then moving off the sub-tropical coast brings a variable light wind flow, with NE seabreezes likely from Tues.

We should see a small increase in S swell later Tues, on the MNC, initially in the 1-2ft range at S facing beaches, with a slightly stronger pulse Wed into the 2-3ft range at NENSW S swell magnets, 1-2ft at SEQLD S swell magnets. Conditions should stay generally  clean through the morning with a’noon seabreezes.

Wednesday’s pulse extends into Thurs at similar sizes with offshore winds tracking NW-N as another system approaches from the interior. All roads lead to S facing beaches for some clean 2ft surf in NENSW, tiny in SEQLD,  easing through the day. 

Further ahead and we’ll see continuing offshore conditions as the W’ly belt rides high and strafes the temperate region with winds we normally see in later winter (August typically). Easing S swells are likely for the end of next week- with some small surf possible from W’ly winds out of Bass Strait, most likely on the Hunter.

We’re still on track for some long range E swell from a trough and embedded low well NE of the North Island but models have now suggested the system will form further away and be weaker and more mobile. 

As such, we’re only looking at small, quality swell, topping out at an inconsistent 2-3ft (more likely 2ft) with long slow periods.

That should fill in Thurs/Fri and persist at low levels into the week beginning 26/6.

In short, looks like our very quiet start to winter continues.

Check back Mon for the latest and have a great weekend!