South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 5th June)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Mostly SE winds this week, tending NW Fri
• Peaky E’ly tradewind swell holds at fun levels Mon-Wed next week
• S’ly groundswell Tues tending to SSE-SE swell Wed/Thurs
• Fun mixed bag from Fri into the weekend with light winds
• Small start to next week with potential mid week for a low pressure trough to develop in the Tasman- check back Wed for updates

Recap

Saturday saw clean conditions and with a nice S swell running there was a large range of wave heights across the f/cast region, ranging from 3-5ft at NENSW S swell magnets to 2ft in SEQLD. Light winds tended to light S-SE breezes in the a’noon. Light winds extended into Sun morning with clean leftover S swell to 2-3ft in NENSW, tiny in SEQLD. Through the a’noon we saw short range E/SE swell build under an onshore flow. Onshore SE-E/SE winds have strengthened into today with most places a mess. 2-3ft of short period E/SE tradewind swell is seeing some small peelers on the Points. 

Small, clean beachies Sat morning

This week (June 5-9)

After a much more settled, stable May the first week of June is looking like a temporary back-slide into a more La Niña-esque pattern. A huge (1035hPa) high is sitting E of Tasmania with a low pressure system straddling New Zealand. The high is directing moist onshore winds right up the Eastern Seaboard, while the low has several swell producing fetches associated with it, albeit nothing too major. Let’s dive in.

In the short run and compared to Friday’s expectations the low centred around New Zealand is a little weaker with the fetch locked further north. That’ll see a mix of longer period S and  mid period SSE swell from a slightly off-axis fetch in the 3-4ft range, biggest across NENSW. In SEQLD, short period E’ly tradewind swell in the 2-3ft range will be the main swell source. Expect light/mod SE winds. 

Those winds will persist into Wed with a chance of a morning SW breeze across the Southern Gold Coast into NENSW. Less likely on the Sunshine Coast. SSE swell to 3-4ft will ease through the day but we should see an earlier arrival of SE-E/SE swell from winds out of Cook Strait and off the west coast of the North Island which establish today (see below). That should see some better angled sets in the 3-4ft range, holding through Thurs. 

Winds look good for Thurs morning with light land breezes widespread across the region. Through the day they’ll tend N’ly as a front approaches and conditions will deteriorate away from select backbeaches. Thurs morning looks to be the pick of the week as far as spot selection goes.

The front passes through Fri, bringing a clearing W’ly flow which quickly tends SW then S’ly . Clean 2-3ft leftovers from the E/SE are on the menu for Fri, mostly from the edge of the fetch just above the North Island. We’ll keep tabs on the fetch in case more of the fetch extends up into the swell window proper away from the swell shadow of the North Island.

This weekend (June 10-11)

Small, fun surf expected this weekend. The front brings a weak fetch out of Bass Strait that is unlikely to amount to much more than 1-2ft across the NENSW S facing beaches, tiny elsewhere. We’ll see how it shapes up through the week. A trough forms in the Tasman with a resulting S’ly fetch located in the Northern Tasman supplying some SE swell in the 2ft range. We’ll also see some small, leftover E/SE swell in the 2ft range at exposed beaches. Light morning land breezes should tend to light SE winds as a high slips off the South Coast into the Tasman.

Winds will remain light/mod S-SE on Sunday with morning land breezes as the high moves away from the coast into the Tasman. Nothing much doing swell-wise. A small blend of S and SE swells to 2ft will be about it. Likely a few rideable waves at open beaches and magnets.

Next week (June 12 onwards)

Quiet start to next week. High pressure moves across the Tasman. The remnants of a trough form a weak fetch of SSE winds off the North Island that is likely to send some small (2ft) SE swell to the region. Winds should stay light through Mon-Tues with morning land breezes and light S-SE winds in the a’noon under a weak ridge.

Mid next week looks a little more exciting, with a front pushing through, bringing offshore winds then a trough potentially deepening off the NSW coast. We may see some NE swell from the infeed into the trough, with potential for S-SE swell if the trough deepens or forms a surface low.

Models are still offering mixed messages on this outcome and confidence is low this far out. We’ll flag it for now and see how it’s shaping up on Wed.

Seeya then.