South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 7th June)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Light winds Thurs tending N’ly through the day
• Peaky E’ly tradewind swell holds at fun levels Mon-Wed 
• SE swell peaks Thurs, eases into Fri
• Pulse of E/SE swell Fri, with a small fun signal of E/SE swell extending over the weekend
• Light winds over the weekend
• Small start to next week with some S swell expected later in the week

Recap

A blend of fun sized S-S/SE swell and peaky E swell yesterday was in the 2-3ft range across most of NENSW, just a half notch smaller in SEQLD, with clean conditions under variable winds for most of the morning before SE’lies kicked in. Today is seeing more SE angled swell added to the peaky E swell with size maxing out in the 2-3ft range across NENSW, a little smaller north of the border. Conditions were groomed under a light W flow before winds clocked around SE-E/SE.

Peaky options on the beachies before the wind got up

This week (June 7-9)

The evolution of the current pattern has sped up compared to Monday’s notes with high pressure drifting towards the South Island and weakening and a low centred around the North Island moving NE. A fetch off the top of the North Island is just scraping the edge of our swell window (better aimed at the sub-tropics). An approaching decaying front and inland trough will bring a more offshore flow beginning tomorrow with the end of the week seeing small, offshore conditions. 

In the short run we’ll see SE-E/SE swell peak from an earlier incarnation of the low which produced a fetch out of Cook Strait and the West Coast of the North Island. Expect some 3ft+ sets through the morning with a light morning land breeze tending to freshening N’ly winds as a trough and front approach from the inland. Expect size to ease a notch in the a’noon.

Friday should see some fun beachbreaks early under NW winds with size in the 2ft range. We should see a small a’noon kick in size to 2-3ft in the a’noon from the North Island fetch, bigger 3ft on the Sunshine Coast. Winds tilt more S’ly to SE’ly  in the a’noon as the front passes into the Tasman and may end up variable as a troughy region passes over the sub-tropics, more likely south of the border.

This weekend (June 10-11)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. Offshore winds Sat morning should tend to light/mod SE’lies before dropping back late in the a’noon under a weak pressure environment. E/SE’ly swell from the fetch off the top of the North Island should maintain fun waves, likely in the 2 to occasional 3ft range at open beaches, with a few bigger sets possible north of the border.

Similar winds for Sun. Light land breezes should extend well into the day before light SE seabreezes kick in as high pressure move off the South Coast. Another small, mixed bag down a notch on Sat with inconsistent E/SE’ly swells and traces of S swell in the 2-3ft range offering up a few options on the beachies. 

Next week (June 12 onwards)

A low energy surf environment extends into next week with high pressure in the Central Tasman and weak winds across the sub-tropics. Small surf from the E/SE is expected for Mon and Tues with some 2ft sets Mon, becoming slower and less consistent into Tues.

E’ly swell ebbs away by mid week leaving tiny surf under an offshore flow as a front pushes through from the west. 

Models are still divergent on the front, but a small increase in S swell can be pencilled in for Thurs, with potential for more size Fri if the front forms a small low in the Tasman.

More frontal activity suggests typical S oriented swells as we move into next weekend 17-18/6 and beyond although there’s nothing to suggest any great size at this stage.

Check back Fri and we’ll see how it’s shaping up as well as take a last look at the weekend.