South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 2nd June)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Small, low energy E swells keep surf above flat in SEQLD 
• Slightly stronger S swell arriving later Fri, holding into Sat
• Developing E’ly tradewind swell Sun with onshore winds
• Mostly S-SE winds next week, tending NW Fri
• Peaky E’ly tradewind swell holds at fun levels Mon-Wed next week
• More S swell next week, S’ly groundswell Tues tending to SSE swell Wed/Thurs
• Fun pulse of SE swell likely Fri next week

Recap

Straight-lined S swells eased through yesterday with a few 2ft sets under dreamy light offshore to variable breezes. E swells over-achieved a notch and suppled some inconsistent but quality 2ft sets, 2-3ft on the Sunshine Coast. Mostly tiny surf today in the 1-2ft range with a new pulse of S swell expected across the North Coast during the a’noon. Light morning offshore breezes are expected to tend SE through the a’noon as a high pressure ridge builds along the sub-tropical coast.

Small, peaky options at the magnets

This weekend (June 3-4)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. Todays pulse from the S should hold nicely into tomorrow morning with 3-4ft surf widespread across S facing surf zones in NENSW, smaller 2-3ft at SEQLD S swell magnets. Early winds look OK as todays high pressure cell slips quickly offshore with a weakening ridge offering up morning land breezes before light SE-NE winds establish. More SE in QLD, NE in NSW, becoming more apparent south of Yamba.

By Sunday a high will have slipped SE of Tasmania with a ridge up the NSW coast and freshening winds straight out of the SE to E.  Conditions will be very mediocre though, with a mix of short range E and mid period S swells supplying some 2ft sets, likely building a notch during the day, especially on the Sunshine Coast. There’ll be waves if you are keen, of mostly below average quality.

Next week (June 5 onwards)

A front pushing aggressively NE into the lower Tasman on the weekend forms a low pressure centre which becomes slow moving near New Zealand early next week and this will be a co-main swell source for the week. The other source will be short range, peaky E’ly swell from a tradewind style fetch in the Southern Coral Sea.

The ridge up along the QLD Coast should maintain a S-SE flow for most of next week, only breaking down Fri as a front/low approach from the W. Expect mostly E’ly swell Mon in the 2-3ft range with quality impaired by SE winds and small peelers on the Points the cleanest options.

 S’ly groundswell should peak Tues with long period S swell offering up plenty of size and juice across NENSW. We should see strong sets in the 4-5ft range, at S exposed breaks in NENSW, smaller 2-3ft at SEQLD S swell magnets. Winds will still be an issue with the position of the high directing straight onshore E/SE to E winds but they should stay reasonably light through the day, offering up surfable, albeit bumpy options.

That direct S’ly groundswell eases back into Wed and we’ll see swell direction tend more SSE as the low near NZ directs swell from that position. Light onshore winds continue with improving odds for a morning land breeze into Wed, although we may still see a bit of lump and bump around depending on how far into the evening onshore winds extend.

Expect size in the 3ft range both Wed/Thurs, with mid period SSE swell opening up fun options across the region and peaky E swell providing back-up. 

Friday has some potential with models suggesting a thin fetch of near gales out of Cook Strait Wed next week (see below), with good odds for a nice pulse of fun 2-3ft SE swell Fri, coinciding with winds tending NW as a complex low approaches from the Bight.

That low system looks to stall into next weekend, suggesting a small weekend with mostly offshore winds. Although we may see a S’ly change late in the weekend.

Medium term and there is some modelled troughiness in the Tasman Sea later next weekend 11/6- we’ll see tabs on any low pressure development along that trough line. We’ll flag it for now and see how it’s shaping up on Mon.

Seeya then and have a great weekend!