A depression just to the North-West of New Caledonia now has a high chance of forming a tropical cyclone (Fili) with this system expected to supply some pulses of swell from the NE to E quadrant as it tracks into the Coral Sea. A large cradling fetch of E to SE winds is also aimed at sub-tropical areas and should produce plenty of swell for the region this week.
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The trough off the NSW Coast is expected to deepen and in conjunction with the large high moving at Tasmanian latitudes, create a large SE to E’ly fetch aimed at NENSW and SEQLD.
A trough of low pressure associated with the current sub-tropical low deepens rapidly through tomorrow in response to the influx of cold air, forming a storm force low pressure system off the NSW Central Coast overnight Thursday into Friday.
The northern end of the coastal trough system is expected to deepen into a surface low through tonight into tomorrow, off the SEQLD coast, moving south through Wednesday.
This expansive troughy pattern is likely to morph from day to day as weather models struggle to resolve the vorticity and local areas of low pressure within the trough line.
A high just east of Tasmania and a slow moving trough of low pressure off the North Coast direct a pretty robust onshore flow across most of temperate NSW. This fetch will be too far south to be of much use for our sub-tropical region.
In the short run and an elongated “bubble” high moves north along the coast through tomorrow, bringing a cracker of a day with light offshore breezes which will tend SE through the day, with winds becoming light in the a’noon.
That front then forms a low, which becomes slow moving as it tracks NE towards the North Island. Swell is incoming from the front and the low, generating swell from the southern quadrant.
Both these fetches are going to supply fun sized mid period swells going into the weekend with a front and low expected in the Tasman Sea over the weekend.
A stronger high at at even more Southerly latitude is South-west of Tasmania and tracking into the lower Tasman to replace the current high cell. This will reinforce the SE’ly fetch and maintain a weak onshore flow on the coast.