South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 25th Nov)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Easing S swells Fri with N’ly winds
• Not much action this weekend, small S swell leftovers Sat, weak NE windswell Sun with N’ly winds
• Small surf next week with a weak S swell pulse Tues/Wed
• Low pressure now expected to develop in Coral Sea off CQ/Fraser Coast Wed with solid surf favouring Points by Thurs into next weekend
• Check back Mon for updates

Recap

 S’ly groundswell came in below f/cast expectations yesterday at most places, with only the Coffs/Mid North Coast seeing sets to 3-5ft at S facing beaches, smaller 3ft across most of NENSW and barely reaching 2ft at SEQLD S swell magnets. Today has seen similar sizes with clean conditions early, tending to N/NE breezes as the day warms up. 

Lines of S'ly groundswell filling in at Coffs, elsewhere was much more feeble

This weekend (Nov26-27)

No great changes to the weekend f/cast. A trough and last front bring a weak NW/SW flow through the morning which is likely to clock around SE-NE in the a’noon, although winds should remain light. The front pushes a weak S’ly fetch NE into the Tasman and this will see a rebuild in short range S swell to 2-3ft through the a’noon, with leftover S swell around 2ft through the morning. 

N’lies then establish through Sunday with easing surf from the S, only a few 2ft leftovers are expected early, dribbling away through the a’noon. A small amount of NE windswell may pop up in the a’noon but the fetch is quite weak so keep expectations pegged low. Early winds should remain light and variable allowing a quick grovel in clean beachies before the N’ly kicks in. Expect winds in excess of 20 knots through the a’noon. 

Next week (Nov28 onwards)

A S’ly change pushes up the coast into Mon with S’ly winds reaching the Mid North Coast mid morning before stalling out, with mod NW-N winds from Yamba north into SEQLD. Not much surf is expected just a small amount of short range short period S’ly windswell around 1-2ft. 

We should see an early offshore flow Tues before winds tend SE from Yamba southwards in the wake of another front and as the leading edge of a high pressure ridge establishes. Further north we’ll see light winds before the change finally pushes into SEQLD late in the day without much strength. No swell to speak off with a continuation of marginal 1-2ft surf or less.

By Wed we’ll see a pattern change as a strong high pressure belt straddles Tasmania and we start to see the influence of a trough associated with the monsoon off the QLD Coast. An initial trough may form off in the Northern Tasman which will help increase onshore SE winds across the region. 

Expect an onshore flow to develop Wed and extend through the end of next week. There will be some small S swell pulses during this tine as fronts pass to the south Tues and late Wed, likely arriving later Wed and Fri in the 2-3ft range. These will likely be lost in the larger prevailing SE-E swell developing during this time.

The more intense action will be in the sub-tropics with potential for a trough of low pressure to form off the CQ coast, potentially deepening into a hybrid sub-tropical low later next week. That looks to generate large swells for the SEQLD/NENSW Points for the most part, with an increase beginning Wed, and becoming large through Thurs/Fri. 

A more southwards movement of the low later next week may see much stronger E swell develop into next weekend across NENSW (3-4/12) but we’ll need more model guidance before we can stand on any firm ground there. There’s still some model divergence to deal with and with the system still a week away we’ll need to exercise prudence before making any firm calls.

Pencil in increasing E swells later next week, with a possibility for something juicier into the weekend and check back Mon for a fresh update.

Until then, have a great weekend!