South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 9th Nov)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Plenty of E/SE tradewind-style surf this week, favouring Sunshine Coast for most size with mod/fresh SE winds until Fri
• Offshore mornings likely in NENSW and Southern Gold Coast
• E/SE swell fading out into Sat, with a new pulse of SE swell expected Sun, easing into Mon, with N’ly winds
• A few days of N’ly winds and small surf expected early next week
• Small S swell pulses favouring NENSW from Wed-Fri next week
• Likely new round of tradewind style SE-ESE swell from Thurs next week
• Keeping an eye on low pressure in South Pacific later next week generating potential E swell- stay tuned for updates

Recap

Tradewind style E-ESE swell has maintained a steady drumbeat of surf with the Sunshine Coast seeing the biggest 4ft sets through yesterday and today, grading smaller 3ft on the Gold Coast and into NENSW. Winds were generally light early, land breezes through most of the region, before tending SE and freshening through the day. Some small Point surf has been on offer through the lower tides. Nothing incredible but with warm blue water it’s been nice to get in for a few fun waves. 

Some fun join the dots surf at Points

This week (Nov 9-11)

We’re in the middle of the blocking pattern which is coming in a little weaker than modelled. High pressure (1025hPa) sits in the Central Tasman directing a fairly insipid SE flow through most of the Central/Northern Tasman and extending into the Coral Sea. A long trough through the Coral Sea and South Pacific with embedded low pressure centres is not tightening the pressure gradient to the extent modelled. As a result surf is coming in at the low end of f/cast expectations, and this soft trend is expected to continue.

In the short run and with our expectations lowered we’re in for a slight bump in E’ly swell through tomorrow from mid morning, with size mostly in the 3-4ft range and the odd bigger one in the mix as a result of a slightly off-axis fetch in the Eastern Tasman. More of the same winds as well- light/mod SE with good odds for a morning land breeze widely distributed across the region. 

Thursdays  increase is expected to hold through Fri as the blocking pattern begins to break down. Expect 3-4ft surf from the Eastern quadrant- with the odd bigger set- and winds to tend more variable then E/NE through the day after a morning land breeze. These winds are expected to stay within gentle to moderate breeze strength so surface conditions should remain serviceable through the a’noon.

This weekend (Nov12-13)

No change to winds across the weekend. A weak trough will stall somewhere around Sydney so our sub-tropical region will see N’ly winds both days, with light NW wind expected for Sat morning. Surf-wise we’re looking at the dregs of this week’s tradewind style surf, with soft 2-3ft surf expected, easing through the a’noon. 

Sundays E/SE-SE groundswell also gets a haircut, unfortunately. The fetch which begins out of Cook Strait and flares up off the West Coast of the North Island is now weaker, less extensive and shorter in duration compared to model runs on Mon. It’s still well aimed at the region so we’ll see some nice 3ft sets in NENSW, smaller 2-3ft in SEQLD, with a low end bias likely. Winds will quickly establish from the N-NE through Sun and freshen so you’ll need to seek wind protection early in the morning. The rapid development of a N’ly fetch extending up to sub-tropical latitudes is likely to see NE windswell develop to 2ft in the a’noon. 

Next week (Nov14 onwards)

The NE fetch reaches peak strength overnight Sun into Mon with NE windswell in the 2-3ft range through Mon morning (see below) and winds  shifting N’ly to NW’ly,  as a cut-off low approaching Tasmania drives a W’ly synoptic  flow across temperate NSW. Expect a few stray sets from the SE to 2-3ft through Mon morning before they ease down rapidly through the day.

NW to W’ly winds look to groom an ocean devoid of swell sources back to the 1-2ft range through Tuesday.

From mid next week S swell is now looking to be the dominant swell source as the cut-off low moves SE into the Tasman and an angled trough maintains a SSW-S fetch near Tasmania. 

There’s still some model divergence so expect some revision but based on current modelling we should see an increase in new S swell Wed with size provisionally getting up into the 2-3ft range in NENSW, tiny in SEQLD.

Further pulses are likely Thurs and Fri, of roughly similar sizes, although we’ll finesse those calls as we get closer to the event.

A high pressure ridge is likely to rebuild another broad fetch of SE winds through the Northern Tasman later next week suggesting another round of tradewind-style surf from the SE-ESE through the sub-tropics from Thurs next week likely in the 3ft range.

We’ll also be keeping tabs on a sub-tropical low pressure trough forming in the South Pacific slot mid/late next week which may supply some useful E swell possibly as early as next weekend 19-20/11.

Check back in Fri and we’ll run the ruler over it and take a last look at the weekend.

Seeya then.