In fact there is a suggestion we could see a small closed low form off the Hunter coast on Sunday.
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Tropical Cyclone Penny is redeveloping in the Coral Sea though will remain outside of our swell window. As such it’s not seen as a swell source for Southern NSW.
A near stationary synoptic pattern will deliver only subtle changes in surf conditions this week.
And, we can’t ignore the Tropical Coral Sea and South Pacific, can we?
The easing E’ly swell will be replaced by building NE windswell. More in the Forecaster Notes.
We’ve got some fun swell inbound for the Xmas period, though freshening NE winds will create bumpy conditions at times.
A trough is expected to strengthen in the north-eastern Tasman Sea on Sunday (in the wake of Saturday’s S’ly change) and this is expected to remain slow moving for a few days.
Of more interest are two long range swells that will provide more size and strength to the surf zone. They are both starting to show across the coast and should appear more prominently across the region ahead of peak in size on Friday. More in the Forecaster Notes.
The weekend’s deep inland trough responsible for the persistent northerly flow has now pushed into the southern Tasman Sea, formed into a closed low, and is developing a reasonable southerly fetch about its western flank.
There won’t be any shortage of NE swell this weekend, but the accompanying winds will generally be fresh and gusty from the same direction, so quality will be somewhat limited for the most part.