Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 3rd June)

Best Days: Thurs: moderate S'ly swell, light offshore winds. Fri: large S'ly swell, generally OK winds. Sat: strong, though easing S'ly swell, light winds. Sun: generally small though with occasional solid, long period pulses from the south, with light winds. 

Recap: Saturday delivered large, generally wind affected S’ly swells in the 6-8ft range at south facing beaches, smaller elsewhere, though some beaches scored early light offshore winds. Wave heights eased from 5-6ft to 3-5ft on Sunday with much better conditions under a light offshore breeze, and we saw a further small easing trend from 3-4ft this morning, with favourable offshore winds persisting. A low pressure system is developing off the Southern NSW, and whilst winds are presently light from the Central Coast to the Ilawarra, to our north Newcastle is NW gusting 23kts, whilst to our south Montague Island is S/SW gusting 37kt. 

This week (June 4 - 7)

Today’s Forecaster Notes are brought to you by Rip Curl

In 2015, Craig Brokensha penned an article When is an east coast low not an East Coast Low?

Right now, we’ve got a classic, though rare example of the reverse: the current low pressure system developing off the South Coast was - as per last week’s model runs - expected to exhibit characteristics more like a Tasman Low. However, the latest model guidance has stalled its development and is keeping it much nearer the coast, which means we’re looking at an East Coast Low. 

Though, to be honest there’s no change in the surf forecast for the next few days: it’ll be very large and windy from the south (the reclassification from a Tasman Low to an East Coast Low will mainly show by way of much higher rainfall totals, and marginally stronger local winds).

Estimating wave heights for Tuesday is a moot point anyway, because local winds will probably be in the 30-40kt range, gusting 50kts+ at times. So, whether the surf reaches 8ft, 10ft, 12ft, or even 15ft (as per our model guidance) - it’s all academic as the only rideable options will be novelty sheltered locations that can handle both a very large swell and persistent southerly gales. I wouldn't get too excited about your surf prospects.

Wave heights will trend up rapidly during the day - it could still be relatively small at dawn - and then ease quickly through Wednesday, still likely 6-8ft early morning, but down to 4-5ft by the afternoon (smaller at remaining beaches but bigger through the Hunter).

Southerly winds will also ease during Wednesday but it’s still expected to be fresh and gusty through the morning, and I’m not particularly confident of a period of early SW winds (though it is plausible across the Northern Beaches for a short period). Southern corners and other protected locations should start to offer a few more options though. 

Thursday looks much better all round with light to moderate W/SW tending SW winds and mix of easing swells from Tues/Wed, plus a small pulse of afternoon energy from a polar front pushing south of Tasmania today. No major size is expected from this source, but we should see 3-4ft surf all day at south facing beaches, occasionally pushing slightly bigger in the 3-5ft range (more likely into the afternoon). Again, expect bigger surf in the Hunter but smaller waves elsewhere.

Overnight Thursday, a fresh long period S’ly groundswell will push across the coast, generated by a broad, intense Southern Ocean low that’ll move through the lower Tasman Sea mid-week (see chart below).

The models are slightly undercalling this event, and I think we’re looking at some large waves too finish the working week. Most south facing beaches should push up into the 5-6ft+ range, and thanks to the large periods associated with core winds around 45-50kts+, a handful of offshore bombies and other reliable south swell magnets should be closer to 8ft, maybe 10ft at times. of course, anywhere not open to the south will be much smaller. 

The only fly in the ointment is a possible S’ly breeze as the associated front clips the coast, but I think we’ll see offshore winds early, and even if it does eventually swing to the south, there won’t be a lot of strength in it. 

This weekend (June 8 - 9)

In general, we’re looking at light variable winds and easing S’ly swells from Friday. 

Early Saturday morning should still offer occasional 4-5ft sets at south facing beaches but the downwards trend is expected to be pretty steady. Again, it’ll be bigger through the Hunter and smaller elsewhere - well worth your time and effort.


At first glance, Sunday looks pretty small across the region with residual S’ly swells.

However, a deep polar low well below Tasmania on Thursday/Friday (see below) is expected to display extremely strong winds - 60kts+ at its core - and this is expected to generate a small long period S’ly swell for Sunday that could throw up occasional 3-4ft+ sets amongst the small leftover energy, though there will be considerably large breaks between the bigger waves.

With light winds on offer, it’ll be worth scouting out a south swell magnet.

Next week (June 10 onwards)

Looks like a quiet period ahead for the first half of next week, ahead of the next onslaught of southerly swells towards the end of the week. More on this in Wednesday’s update.