A series of secondary fronts will move into the lower Tasman Sea behind the weekend’s event, supplying useful south swell through the first half of next week. More in the Forecaster Notes.
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Noticeable swing in the model guidance for the weekend - in our favour too, which is nice.
The synoptics are quite busy at the moment with a surface trough stretching longitudinally across the western Tasman Sea, and a series of fronts pushing through the Great Australian Bight.
There won’t be any shortage of surf this weekend. However, conditions will be quite mixed. More in the Forecaster Notes.
Water temps are reportedly down 1-2 degrees since the start of the week, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it drops a little more as we head towards the weekend. So you may need to being back the winter rubber!
I’ve never been one to simplify a forecast when a thesis will suffice, but the fact is that the surf outlook for this week is relatively straight forward, in a broad synoptic sense anyway.
We’re still expecting a deepening coastal trough off SE Qld early next week. In fact, it’s expected to slowly meander within our swell window until about Thursday which means it’ll generate E/NE energy all the way through until next weekend. More in the Forecaster Notes.
Unfortunately, the recent downgrade of the Tasman Low wasn’t the only model influence on the synoptics. Read all about it in the Forecaster Notes.
So, we've got a bloody good weekend coming up, it would seem.
Next week looks very dynamic, with an upper trough approaching from the west, combining with an intense polar outbreak to generate either a deep Tasman Low or a possible East Coast Low.