Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 7th June)

Best Days: Early Sat will see the best waves of the forecast period, but there's some potential Sun, Mon and Tues at south swell magnets. 

Recap: Thursday delivered some incredible waves across Southern NSW, with wave heights coming in bigger than expected for the early surf, pushing 4-6ft at most south facing beaches as the swell direction swung more S/SE off the back of the low. Size eased a little through the day but some locations reported a restrengthening into the afternoon, which had been mentioned in these notes, sourced from a brief polar low south of Tasmania on Monday. Today has seen a new long period S’ly swell push along the coast with the Botany Bay buoy recording peak swell periods around 17.4 seconds. This has translated to 6ft+ sets across most south facing beaches, and we’ve heard scattered reports of 8-10ft sets at a couple of offshore bombies. Winds have been generally light offshore from Sydney to the Hunter but some coasts near the Illawarra have picked up moderate southerlies at times. 

This weekend (June 8 - 9)

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Great conditions are expected all weekend under a light, variable wind pattern. 

As for surf, we’ll see today’s southerly swell ease back steadily through the day. Early morning will offer the most size, with inconsistent 3-5ft sets south facing beaches, bigger around 5-6ft across the Hunter but smaller elsewhere. Expect wave heights to lose at least a couple of feet through the day, and it’ll also become a lot less consistent too.

On Sunday, the swell charts are still suggesting tiny residual energy across the coast. 

However, I’m still holding out hope that a couple of reliable south swell magnets will pick up a small long period S’ly swell from a polar low well south of Tasmania yesterday and today. It’s poorly aligned, but very strong and we should see some energy spread back along the Southern NSW coast however it’ll just glance the region and therefore favour a very small number of locations. Our model is showing half a metre at 15-16 seconds for the Northern Beaches (slightly SW of S).

So, for the most part expect small waves at most beaches of 1-2ft or less, however don’t be surprised if a couple of spots deliver occasional 3-4ft sets throughout the day from this energy (they’ll be very infrequent though). It’s a low confidence event, so I wouldn’t plan any highway miles, but if you’re in the vicinity of a south facing beach it’ll be well worth a look.

Next week (June 10 onwards)

The storm track is now aligned well and truly outside of our swell window. 

As a result, our models have flat-lined for the entire outlook period, suggesting there won’t be any rideable waves for the next week and a half at least. Maybe more. 

However, I think we’ll see some surf at exposed beaches next week. 

Firstly, the polar low responsible for the Sunday pulse is stalling south of New Zealand, and we should see a small pulse of S/SE swell off the backside arriving sometime on Monday, probably the afternoon. No major size is expected but exposed south facing beaches could pick up stray 2ft sets every so often (elsewhere, it’ll be tiny to flat). This should persist through Tuesday though it’ll be gone by Wednesday. 

An intense low passing south of Tasmania on Saturday will be very poorly aligned for our region but we should pick up some occasional 1-2ft sets at south swell magnets early Tuesday (mainly the Hunter).

And lastly, another polar low forming south of Tasmania around Tuesday should generate a brief flush of small S’ly swell for the end of the week, though no major size is likely, just a few 2ft sets at south facing beaches around Friday.

N’ly thru’ NW winds are expected all week with generally good conditions.

Looking further ahead and an amplifying node of the Long Wave Trough is expected to approach the SE corner of the country later next week, so there’s a suggestion we could be in for another round of solid S’ly swell during the early to middle part of the following week. More on that in Monday’s notes. 

Have a great weekend!