Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 27th May)

Best Days: Tues: brief S'ly swell with offshores. Thurs: building S'ly swell with offshores. Fri: good conditions, and strong southerly swells continuing to build, becoming large. Sat/Sun/Mon/Tues: large series of S'ly swells, but windy at times. 

Recap: The weekend was tiny. A small E/NE swell built very late Sunday and has held into today but it’s come in smaller than expected with very inconsistent set waves around 1-2ft. A strong new S’ly swell tipped to begin showing late today is also running behind schedule. The weekend saw light offshore winds and clean conditions, and we’ve seen strengthening offshores today as a series of vigorous fronts cross the state. 

This week (May 28 - 31)

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The projected southerly swells for this week have been up and down like a yo-yo throughout the model runs over the last few days. 

It’s all associated with a slow moving amplifying node of the Long Wave Trough, and getting the specifics nailed down has been very difficult. Mainly because the position of the storm track has been right over the SE corner of the state, straddling the Tasmanian divide. Some model runs have pushed it to the west (downgrading our size potential), others have pushed it to the east (upgrading our size potential). But we're closer to the event now so the models are starting to converge, and we're looking at a very impressive cold outbreak across the region. 

Anyway, the first south swell associated with this pattern was due to start pushing through later today, but we’ve seen the synoptic stall briefly and this is now going to happen on Tuesday. A slightly less favourable alignment exiting eastern Bass Strait (see chart below) has resulted in a downgrading of size too, though the strength of the fetch is expected to be pretty strong and we should see some strong energy at exposed spots.

We’ll see a brief flush through Tuesday morning with 3ft, occasionally 3-4ft sets at south facing beaches (bigger through the Hunter) but the direction will be very steep, so beaches not open to the south will be much smaller. It’ll be nice and clean though with moderate to fresh W/NW winds. I'm not expecting this pulse to last long either, so we are likely to see smaller surf either side of the main peak (currently slated for mid-late morning).

At the same time, the storm track will angle away from our swell window again, so surf size will drop right off into Wednesday as W/NW thru’ NW winds strength across the coast. We’ll see westerly gales exiting eastern Bass Strait swing slightly W/SW throughout the day, providing a new round of southerly swell spread across exposed coasts into Thursday, though at this stage we’re looking at 2-3ft sets at south facing beaches (same caveats; bigger across the Hunter, smaller elsewhere etc). 

However, by this time the LWT will be firmly into the Tasman Sea and the broader storm track will push up from the south. A strong S/SW fetch trailing a cold front is expected to be off the Far South Coast around dawn and this could provide a late jump in size at south facing beaches, though Friday is a more plausible outcome at this stage. 

A series of much broader, stronger fronts will then enter the lower Tasman Sea later Thursday, and a complex combo of south swells will provide large waves to finish the week, building from 4-5ft to 6ft+ throughout the day. 

For the most part, local winds look good Thursday and Friday mornings but both days will be susceptible to strong S/SW or even S’ly winds developing from mid-late morning onwards. Friday in particular is at most risk, though with the bigger surf there will be good options inside protected southern corners. 

This weekend (June 1 - 2)

Friday’s late size increase will plateau through Saturday, generally north of 6ft with a occasional 8ft sets at reliable south swell magnets. Expect smaller surf at protected locations, as per usual.


However, aside from an early period of isolated W/SW winds here and then we’re looking at moderate to fresh southerlies for the most part. So, many beaches will be wind affected and only protected points and other sheltered spots will have worthwhile options. 

Wave heights will ease steadily throughout Sunday (4-6ft down to 3-5ft south facing beaches, smaller elsewhere but larger across the Hunter) and local conditions should improve a little as local winds also abate - though there is once again a risk of a southerly breeze throughout the day. 

Next week (June 3 onwards)

Yet another similar passage of strong fronts is expected through the lower Tasman Sea early next week, that will renew large, windy south swells across the region for a couple of days. In fact early indications are that it may be bigger than what we’re expecting this Fri/Sat (though it’s early days yet).