Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 5th June)

Best Days: Most days should have great waves. Friday for the most size with a large new S'ly swell. Keep an eye out for a sneaky S'ly swell on Sun, and small sneaky S/SE swells Mon-Wed.

Recap: Tuesday’s ECL delivered some of the largest waves seen across the East Coast in many years. Most open locations with good southerly exposure managed 12-15ft sets, and there’ve been reports up and down the coast of offshore bombies pushing 18-20ft at the height of the swell late morning (whaddya think of the Wedding Cake image below?). Winds were gusty from the southern quadrant, though we saw SW periods at times. The most interesting part of this swell was just how quickly wave heights built - as per the images from Manly below, building from 2ft just at quarter to nine, to 10ft sets at the Queenscliff Bombie, ninety minutes later. Today has seen much improved conditions with winds around to the SW in most regions, even W’ly for a time on the Northern Beaches. South facing beaches were still 8-10ft at first light but have eased to 6-8ft this afternoon, whilst remaining beaches are much smaller in size. 

It took around ninety minutes for Manly to jump from two feet to ten feet (8:50am to 10:20am)

I dare you to put a size on this set at Wedding Cake Island!

This week (June 6 - 7)

Today’s Forecaster Notes are brought to you by Rip Curl

We’re now well and truly on the backside of Tuesday’s incredible ECL swell. Wave heights will continue to ease through Thursday, and early W/SW winds will veer SW throughout the day, tending S’ly late afternoon as a front clips the coast. 

South facing beaches should still see 3-4ft+ surf (bigger around 4-5ft+ across the Hunter) but it’ll be smaller at beaches not open to the south and wave heights should ease marginally through the day. A small pulse of long range S’ly swell may arrive into the afternoon, generated by a brief polar front that pushed south of Tasmania on Monday, which may generate the odd bigger wave late in the day. 

On Friday, a solid pulse of long period S’ly swell will arrive, generated by an intense low pushing through the Southern Ocean into the lower Tasman Sea. This system is reaching maturity right now with core wind speeds into the 50kt+ range, most of which are aimed towards NZ and Fiji - however the broad width of the fetch and its impressive duration within our swell window will generate large southerly swells for Southern NSW.

Most south facing beaches are expected to hold 6ft+ surf all day, and reliable swell magnets and offshore bombies are likely to be closer to 8-10ft, though the swell will be less consistent than yesterday and today’s waves. Of course, expect much smaller surf at beaches not directly open to the south. Relative to the recent south swell, expect a broader distribution in wave heights, owing to the less favourable alignment of the storm track. 

Local conditions look pretty good all day, with generally light variable winds tending moderate southerly for a period through the middle of the day, but it probably won’t have a lot of strength and should ease through the afternoon. 

This weekend (June 8 - 9)

Light variable winds are expected all weekend, so conditions will be nice and clean both days. 

Saturday will see easing S’ly swell from Friday, initially 4-5ft at south facing beaches (5-6ft+ across the Hunter and at offshore bombies), but abating steadily throughout the day, in the order of a couple of feet at least. Expect much smaller surf elsewhere.

There’s no change to the outlook for Sunday. Model guidance is still suggesting small residual swells and slow leftover 1-2ft sets at south facing beaches, with clean conditions under a weak pressure gradient. 

However, I’m still expecting a chance for some rare southerly sets to glance the coast during the day, originating from a deep polar low well below Tasmania on Thursday/Friday (see below).

Extremely strong winds at its core and a broad, sustained fetch should counterbalance its poor alignment within our swell window, and this should generate an impressive swell for the South Pacific Ocean, which should spread back up into Southern NSW. This energy could deliver occasional 3-4ft+ sets at reliable south swell magnets (just a small handful of beaches though). I’ll have more info on this in Friday’s update. 

Next week (June 10 onwards)

A series of poorly aligned but intense fronts will push below the lower Tasman Sea over the weekend, aimed into southern NZ. We’ll see small S/SE swells spreading back into our coast early next week - ordinarily I’d discount them as a swell source, but in the absence of any other swell system, they’ll keep south swell magnets from becoming flat on Monday and Tuesday (occ 2ft+ sets); even Wednesday has some potential from the last low in the sequence. Otherwise, expect tiny conditions at most beaches.

Otherwise, there’s nothing standing out beyond this, with an extended quiet period expected to develop as a blocking pattern sets up across our region, steering the storm track away from our swell window. If anything, we may see some tropical developments south of Fiji mid-week that may generate some small E/NE swlel next weekend and into the following week, though nohting spectacular is expected at this point.

See you Friday!