As a side note, if you are in the water and you hear thunder, don’t hang around - lightning can travel tens of kilometres from the source region and the water is a pretty dangerous place to be at these times.
Primary tabs
On Friday, a tropical system is expected to begin slowly deepening south from Tonga, before driving south through our distant east swell window. More in the Forecaster Notes.
There’s a lot of interesting features on the long term charts.
There’s not a whole lot of excitement on the forecast charts. But there will be waves if you’re keen.
It’s not a good weekend ahead. But there are some interesting options, mainly for Northern NSW.
In short: make the most of the next few days.
We have to be careful not to look at the model guidance in isolation, because it’s combining swell trains. More in the Forecaster Notes.
The latest model guidance has slowed TC Pola down a little, which has increased its size potential - though delayed its arrival until very late Sunday or early Monday.
Ex-TC Oma is moving to the north, but in its wake we’re seeing a broad, stationary ridge strengthen across the Northern NSW, which will maintain a steady supply of useful trade swell all week.
TC Oma has weakened to Category 1 status, but will strengthen back to Category 2 into Saturday morning.