South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 8th March)

Best Days: Sun: small S'ly groundswell at south facing beaches south of Byron, winds will be N'ly though so protected northern corners only. Wed PM onwards: couple of interesting swells from the S, SE and E on the cards through into the weekend. Winds will be an issue at exposed beaches though, and protected locations will (initially) be small.

Recap: Thursday saw easing E’ly swells still produce good surf around 2-3ft across SE Qld beaches that offered protection from a developing southerly breeze. South swell magnets in Northern NSW saw a temporary afternoon peak in trailing windswell that eased steadily overnight and through today. The surf is now very small and weak; we’re essentially at the bottom of the swell cycle. 

This weekend (Mar 9 - 10)

Today’s Forecaster Notes are brought to you by Rip Curl

There’s not a whole lot of excitement on the forecast charts. But there will be waves if you’re keen.

Local winds will be dictated by a high pressure system in the eastern Tasman Sea and a small trough-cum-low off the South Coast of NSW. 

This will freshen northerly breezes across the Mid North Coast both days, but north of Ballina we’ll see light variable winds and sea breezes on Saturday and light to moderate N’ly winds on Sunday.

As for surf, a small ridge through the northern Tasman Sea will generate small weak E’ly swells for SE Qld and Far Northern NSW. Exposed beaches may pick up a few stray 2ft+ sets but on the balance it’s really not worth getting too excited. Surf size may be a little undersized early Saturday, and pritected locations will be much smaller.

In Northern NSW, Saturday will see very small residual swells. But Sunday still has potential for south facing beaches south of Byron, with a small, poorly aligned but long period S’ly swell glancing the coast, generated by an intense low passing south of Tasmania late yesterday and today. 

On the whole, this swell will bypass most beaches but south facing beaches should pick up inconsistent 2-3ft sets, and if we’re really lucky, a handful of reliable south swell magnets could see bigger bombs in the 4ft range (for reference, model guidance for Coffs Harbour has 0.6m at 17.6 seconds around lunchtime). With the N’ly breeze, only sheltered northern corners will offer anything worthwhile, and the Northern Rivers probably won’t see a peak until the afternoon (it’ll be earlier across the Mid North Coast).

North of the border, this swell will probably not register at most beaches except a handful of exposed northern ends very late in the day. Size will be small anyway, so don't get excited about surf prospects from this energy. 

So, if you’ve got nothing better to do this weekend, it’ll be worth sniffing out a south swell magnet south from Byron at some point on Sunday. Just keep your expectations low.

Next week (Mar 11 onwards)

The synoptics look pretty quiet for the start of next week, with mainly small residual swells on offer for Monday and Tuesday. 

Sunday’s long period S’ly swell will be a short lived event and probably won’t hang around much into Monday but there’s obviously a chance that early morning may see a few lingering sets. 

A trough across the Mid North Coast will result in mixed winds across this region early next week, but it’ll freshen northerly winds about SE Qld so expect low quality surf for a few days. Small N’ly windswell are possible about exposed north-facing beaches north from Ballina but it won’t be worth the effort.

The second half of the week looks a lot different.

A strong southerly change is expected to push across Northern NSW early Wednesday, and a small trough may form off the Northern NSW coast, anchoring in a small S/SE fetch in our immediate swell window. 

Nothing amazing is expected from this source based on current model guidance, but it’ll be worth keeping an eye on - we should pick up 3-4ft of short range SE swell across Northern NSW and 2-3ft across exposed SE Qld beaches (much smaller running down the outer points, and tiny at protected points). It’ll get rid of the northerly flow too, which a bonus. 

A southerly swell generated by an earlier stage of the change (off the Southern NSW coast on Tuesday) will kick up a punchy short range S’ly swell later Wednesday, easing Thursday, showing 3-4ft+ at south facing beaches south of Byron (smaller surf elsewhere), though likely with problematic winds from the south, tending south-east.

There is some interesting potential from this system to also consider: the parent low to Tuesday’s late change will slip to the south-east from Wednesday onwards, broadening and intensifying though in a poor track alignment, away from our region and travelling across the great circle paths. This would ordinarily lead to a small southerly swell outlook, but if the models slow its forward speed, wave height forecasts will correspondingly increase in size (because, a low of this strength will display strong winds and thus generate higher swell periods). Let’s keep a close eye on this one.

Lastly, a small tropical system is expected to develop between New Caledonia and Fiji this weekend. Initially it’ll begin to freshen a trade flow that’ll generate small E’ly swells (from late Wednesday onwards), perhaps in the 2ft range at most open coasts. 

Model guidance very slowly tracks the developing low south towards New Zealand, ridging up against a high pressure system to the south and strengthening an interesting E’ly fetch. In fact the end of the GFS model run has quite an impressive system sitting in our eastern swell window, that could generate a strong groundswell building later next week peaking into the weekend.

There is some divergence amongst the models but they’re all in agreement that we’ll see see kind of development in our eastern swell window for the long term. So let’s see how Monday’s updates are looking.

Have a great weekend!