Very good though easing E'ly swells
South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 4th March)
Best Days: Tues/Wed: more fun E'ly swell for the points.
Recap: Steady E’ly swells provided good waves across sheltered points over the weekend, with size up to 3-5ft at exposed beaches, smaller south from Ballina with a little less wind across the Mid North Coast. Longer period E’ly swell from TC Pola arrived overnight and has provided occasional bigger sets to exposed beaches throughout today, though the underlying trade swell has maintained a similar size as per the weekend. The image below shows spectral enetrgy at the Brisbane buoy, clearly recording the arrival of the stronger period seen in the water today (which has produced amazing waves for the Noosa Festival of Surfing, where I've been all day). Note: time is descending on the horizontal axis (so the most recent data is at the top, and it goes backwards in time as you go down). Also note the 'pulsey periods' from Friday thru' the weekend.
This week (Mar 5 - 8)
Today’s Forecaster Notes are brought to you by Rip Curl
We’ve got almost a repeat of today in store for Tuesday morning though the trend will be slowly down throughout the day.
The early high tide will swallow up some of the morning size and energy, so keep this in mind: the best tides will coincide with easing energy though the trade flow through the Northern Tasman Sea is still very well established, so we should see a similar level of mid-range E’ly swell as we saw over the weekend.
Let’s peg most beaches in and around the 3-5ft mark across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW, with slightly smaller surf across the Mid North Coast, though the tail end of cyclone swell will offer a more uniform size distribution (i.e. all coasts, if anything more across the southern regions) of occasional larger sets in the 4-6ft range. Of course, protected points will offer the best surf and they'll be smaller in size.
Moderate E/SE winds across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW may see isolated regions of early light variable patterns (mainly the southern Gold Coast) whilst the Mid North Coast should see light winds and NE sea breezes.
The pressure gradient will relax across the northern coasts on Wednesday, allowing winds to become light and variable in most regions with afternoon sea breezes, probably NE. We’ll also see a little more oomph in a gradient N’ly wind across the Mid North Coast, so you’ll need to surf early here. Wave heights will be slowly on the way down from Tuesday but there’ll still be morning options at the points.
The trade flow will start to ease into Tuesday so a more pronounced decrease will occur into Thursday and Friday. Most open beaches should still be seeing 2-3ft+ sets to begin with, but we’ll be down to 2ft+ by Friday. Expect smaller surf at protected spots.
Wind wise, a gusty southerly change will advance along the coast early Thursday (may not reach the border until early mid-morning) and this will kick up some short range S’ly swell throughout the day, mainly exposed northern ends of the Gold/Sunshine Coast (late afternoon) and south facing beaches in Northern NSW, where we’ll see the most size south of the border (possible 3-4ft+ sets, though no great quality).
Thursday’s S’ly swell will ease rapidly into Friday and apart from a moderate to fresh lingering SE flow across the northern Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast, most regions should see rapidly easing tending light variable winds and sea breezes to finish the working week.
In short: make the most of the next few days.
This weekend (Mar 9 - 10)
No major surf is expected this weekend.
A weak ridge developing across the Northern Tasman Sea on Friday into Saturday will build small E/SE swells across the region, though it’ll probably just stabilise most open beaches in the 2ft+ range. Expect smaller surf across protected locations. Early light winds and NE sea breezes are expected on Saturday, with as slightly more pronounced N’ly flow across the Mid North Coast up to about Yamba or Ballina on Sunday (light winds and NE sea breezes across other coasts on Sunday).
Also in the water for the second half of the weekend will be a small long period S’ly groundswell from a large and powerful though poorly aligned low pressure system south of Tasmania on Thursday and Friday.
The size of the low is quite impressive but I’m concerned that its poor orientation plus significant swell shadowing offered by Tasmania will significantly attenuate wave heights across Northern NSW.
If nothing else we’ll see an enormous difference in size range - most beaches won't see much, if any swell from this source, however the majority of south facing beaches should pick up 2ft sets. On the other hand, one or two reliable south swell magnets could see much larger waves in the 3-4ft range. We’ll have to wait and see how the model updates propagate this system over the coming days.
Next week (Mar 11 onwards)
Nothing major showing on the charts right now - I’ll be watching a steady frontal progression south of Tasmania and also a small area of tropical activity between New Caledonia and Fiji, for possible swell generation into the long period term.
More on this in Wednesday’s forecast.
Comments
Good fun racing a few freight trains off the rocks, mostly closeouts though. Thanks pola.
5 days of autumn.
5 days of end to end relentless onshore E'ly winds.
Is this ever going to end?
Yep, patience is wearing thin
I've given up.
I'm taking the kids and surfing the Pass.
As far as surfing onshore shitt goes, I'm over it.
Lots of effort for not much reward. Some of them have got plenty of push though.
Also, the free entertainment of watching people get off the rocks (or not) is good value.
Yesterday I was alone in one of the prettiest lineups I’ve seen on the East coast .....then I caught a good mackie.
Oil slick glass. Lots of sealife getting about. Schools of bonito smashing bait with shearwaters going nuts .
Today was offshore till about 10:30 . The odd wave with push between the popcorn* if you waited . Plenty of time to twist and shout. Like a different world to summer already. Except for the Northerly blowing now .
*Popcorn is so low energy that you need to eat buckets of it for a meal .But you always get sick of it before you get satisfied. Same as low period “ popcorn “ surf. It’ll tide you over, even seem appealing on occasion, but you can’t live on it.
I learnt the popcorn lesson when it was the only food I had left during a camping trip. Only lasted a day and a half - 4 meals - before I left pumping waves to resupply on actual food with nutrients.
Been a good little period where I'm at. And yeah the spanno's have been in close lately. Seen a couple doing the verticle launch through bait schools right behind the break. Getting a good 3-4 metres of air, it's a sight to behold. Always the way though, you see fish while you're surfing, and waves while you're fishing!
that sounds nice this is the report from noted pro fisho and surfer Cliffy Corbett and says it all:
Up before a sparrows fart at 1am this morning chewing at the bit to go to sea and it was blowing and squalling storms from the east and peeing down rain So I gave Jug a call he was out at sea doing his thing on the Trawler just inside of the 32 fathom reef.
Jug tells me its blowing from the north northeast over 15 to 20 knots Every now and then sets of roll (swell)moves under him with about 1.5 to 2 meters rise .He said he had about .5 of a knot of tide to the south where he was The water seemed to be cool his engine was running cool it was not running hot
Jug tells me the bottom is all stirred up still. He is picking up a lot of Kelp and weed in his nets every where he worked.
Jug tells me about that bloody Bar and crossing it A lot of sand has built up all over it. just beware the builded up bank of sands next to and on the inside of the north wall Very nasty A lot of waves in between the walls as well Look before you leap girls and boys. I believe the Bar has a Extreme Caution on it now
Latest Wave Buoy info taken at 5am Thanks to the crew working up the Marine Rescue Tower on North Wall Ballina
Sea 1.39m Swell 1.83mall from the east Duration 7.4sec Total Height 2.3mWater Temp 25.8dgc
Don't look good for a surf its on shore wind and still no sands on our surf spots Just big rocky holes.
From yesterday: The ocean is still a mess Has been all week end Its been a on shore sloppy sea and swell chop and slop coming onto shore .
No good for a surf or going to sea But I can see miles and tons of sands on the move up the coast That movement was a long way out to sea I would say out to 15 fathoms or 20 fathoms Its all messed up With the on shore energy in swell and sea I hope it all gets pushed into our surf hot spots They all need sand Huey do your thing
The bar has been very unfriendly on the low and run out tides Its been nasty all the time High or low and more then likely its nasty today Have a good look at it first It has a Extreme Caution on it by the way.
Looking at the ocean yesterday I could see it was a green brown to sandy colour all the way out to the horizon with chop and slop all over it NOT GOOD give it a miss It all has a bit more settling down to do yet
old cliff hanger eh......well seems like im not missing any thing,what ive seen around down here is pure shit so probably same whole mid/nth coast.....banks looked even worse now than before if thats possible..
Had a paddle at a windblown point last night and this morning. Cleaner last night than this morning.
Report saying yesterday arvo and this morning 4-6'.
3-4 at best.
Bring on some light offshores hey?
was 3-4ft here too.
Alex a fat though powerful 4ft, but overpopulated given it’s a weekday.
Had a quick paddle over lunch, Keely was out there, giving the term ‘shredding’ a whole new meaning. Replay @ 12:13 and a bit to watch her get burnt by one of the senile Bluff regulars.
Alex can be worse than Noosa at times - at least at TT, the wave doesn’t shutdown at the touch of a fly; you can still have a half-decent ride (most of the time) if/when some work-shy hipster t & b’s you. Can be fun to log 1-3fters at the Bluff, especially in Autumn/Winter, though for the most part it’s dreadful.
Is there a worse (notable) pointbreak on the east coast? Genuinely curious.
Definitely the worst point break in SEQ for wave quality v crowd
You got a couple in the running up your way, I’d add Carties and Moffs to that list
Agree with you on Carties. Moffats can be excellent on its day.
Even at their rare best Alex and Moffs are mediocre waves really.
Been some good ones outer points, guess its over for those spots now, bring on the beachies...
Hi Ben,
Surf on the gold coast seemed a bit undersized today. Thought it was going to be much bigger. There were some solid ones but only one to sometimes 2 every half hour. With this sort of period and size i expected it to be much bigger and more consistent. Wondering if you got out or had a look to shed some light on this?
Steve
Until these big high pressure systems move away from the Tasman, going to be stuck with the same onshore conditions.
Was hoping Oma might have flicked the switch to autumn but she hasn’t. Water temp is heading down and red weed is back. In Jan the weed even caused a fish kill in Crowdy Head Harbour.
Welcome autumn. A local beach was focusing the swell in thick 4-5' lefts. Beautiful, heavy, spitting left hand barrels. Clean as a whistle. Still got water dripping out of nose as I type.
wow, it's amazing how stubbornly static this setup is, even after Oma.
Tweed coast benefited all summer and looks like it still is.
Le-ba sucked all summer and still does.
semi-close-out beachies on offer today or high tide no banks on the rocks point breaks with a northerly gurgle already on it.
slim pickings.
Been sitting at the beach at First Point Noosa almost continually since Thursday.. been great to observe the massive variability in surf conditions through the last few days.
There's been lengthy periods (20-30 mins) of occasional 1ft waves, and then pulsey periods where it pumps non-stop in the 3ft+ range for an hour.
Even today set waves are easily shoulder high here, but there are enormous breaks of much smaller conditions.
How are the outer bays looking? Interested to know how the sand is holding up.
Still Norwest here at 11:30 . There’s a little spot I know will be cranking on the dropping tide right now.
It’s getting quite hot .
And I’m housebound.
Give me strength lord.
Good-quality lefts and a few rights this morning on the SC beachies. 3-4ft, with the odd bomb pushing 5.
With tomorrow’s winds expected to be good again, I’d 100% go for a drive up the coast if I had the time.
First Point Noosa is still 2ft, almost 3ft. Was super inconsistent this morning but the last hour has seen it pulse much more consistenly. Waves are really good, sea breeze hasn't kicked in properly yet (only 5-10kt).