The current pattern- with weak high pressure drifting across Central NSW and a soft ridge along the coast- will be replaced in emphatic fashion by a much stronger front and trough on Friday, anchored by a monster high moving into the Bight at the same time. Well to the south of that set-up will be a deep polar low and associated fronts with severe gales to storm force winds generating long period S’ly swells to make landfall early next week.
Primary tabs
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2022/08/31/weak-swells-ending-fri-plenty-size-the
freeride76
Wednesday, 31 August 2022
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2022/08/29/quiet-working-week-plenty-size-the-s
freeride76
Monday, 29 August 2022
Not a great deal of action on the charts to start the last week of Winter. A strong high (1040hPa) is on the other side of New Zealand but pressure gradients in the Tasman are weak, with minimal swell energy being generated from that source. N’ly winds are freshening ahead of a trough which is drawing down more moisture from the Indian Ocean and brings a S’ly change mid-week and a small pulse in S swell.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2022/08/26/lacklustre-outlook-the-coming-week
thermalben
Friday, 26 August 2022
Bit of a slow weekend ahead, with easing southerly swells for Saturday becoming very small into Sunday.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2022/08/24/surf-settling-down-quickly-quiet-end
freeride76
Wednesday, 24 August 2022
The current robust but compact low is driving near gales in a thin fetch adjacent to the Central/Mid North Coast, with a tail of weaker winds extending out into the Central Tasman, with the whole show moving eastwards quickly today. Another, much weaker front, pushes up the coast tomorrow before a large high pressure system sets up a ridge along the temperate to sub-tropical coast of NSW.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2022/08/22/plenty-surf-and-robust-wind-changes-week
freeride76
Monday, 22 August 2022
Synoptic charts this week look typical of a seasonal transition with mobile high pressure up at sub-tropical latitudes and a strong front poised to sweep into the Tasman with a robust low forming on the front line before rapidly shifting eastwards. Behind that typical seasonal pattern lurks signs of La Niña with a persistent trough line in the Coral Sea and a very strong high expected to track through the Southern Bight later this week.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2022/08/19/complex-ultimately-rewarding-surf
thermalben
Friday, 19 August 2022
Things just got super complex for next week, dammit.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2022/08/17/stacks-swell-out-the-east
thermalben
Wednesday, 17 August 2022
All looking pretty fun to finish the rest of the week with light winds under a dominant high pressure system, and a building swell from the eastern quadrant.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2022/08/15/couple-more-small-days-really-active
freeride76
Monday, 15 August 2022
A deep low just to the East of Tasmania is now slowly weakening and moving away, maintaining a westerly flow across the region. A trough line linked to the low extends from the Tasman Sea up into the Coral Sea past New Caledonia and over the next few days this trough deepens as it slowly moves East, activating an incredibly wide fetch of E to NE winds infeeding into it.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2022/08/12/quality-e-swell-expected-later-next-week
freeride76
Friday, 12 August 2022
We still have the same building blocks in place for next week but the timing has been pushed back and the mix has been altered as E swell dominates from the “trough block” and S swell fades in importance.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2022/08/10/easing-trend-the-weekend-lots-swell
freeride76
Wednesday, 10 August 2022
The multiple fetches coming off a Tasman low near New Zealand anchored by a high just east of Tasmania are now starting to wane. Current ASCAT (satellite windspeed) passes show a weakening fetch of SE winds in the Central/Northern Tasman and a thin fetch of strong winds out of Cook Strait. That will lead to a slow easing trend through tomorrow, accelerating into Fri and the start of the week-end.
