We have a powerful swell generating pattern in place with a deep low (993hPa) in the Tasman, supported by a large high (1033hPa) well to the south of the Bight.
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We’re now looking at a very significant S swell early next week as a deep low sits off the South or Gippsland Coast with severe gales to storm force winds aimed into the proximate southern swell window. Concurrently, another Ross Sea ice shelf fetch will be peaking or just post-peak as a massive deep low forms NE of the Ross Sea on the weekend and develops storm force winds.
It’s likely we will see remnants of the inland monsoon low approach the SEQLD/NSW Coast during the weekend, dragging a moist NE flow down from the tropics and creating a mini black nor-easter event.
This is a tricky, low confidence event so I’d be reluctant to pack the car overnight for a pre-dawn mission - but it’ll be well worth keeping an eye on things.
Tues offers some potential with models picking up some long period S/SE groundswell generated by a slow moving polar low around the edge of the Antarctic ice shelf in the vicinity of the Ross Sea.
Both swell sources will ease slowly through Friday though early morning should still show a healthy percentage of Thursday’s size
The front responsible for today’s large southerly swell has already exited our swell window, so we’re looking at a steady drop in size from Tuesday onwards.
SW gales push through Bass Strait and off the Far South Coast Sun night and into Mon with the bulk of the frontal winds likely to extend up to Sydney in the hours before dawn.
N’ly winds will increase over the weekend as a more significant trough and frontal system pushes into the Tasman next week, generating swells from the southern quadrant.
The whole synoptic pattern on the East Coast in the wake of Alfred is a moist onshore flow which looks to persist through into the mid week. A weak front races across the lower Tasman before reinforcing high pressure slips into the Tasman to reset the flow, albeit at a weaker level. Not a great deal of swell generated by any feature this week.