The basic building blocks as we described them in Monday's notes are now in place for (another!) dynamic La Niña mediated surf/weather event. A dominant high pressure system (1034hPa) is strengthening as it slowly crosses Tasmania, a typical Summer latitude for high pressure. The remains of a low near the South Island are continuing to send south quadrant swells our way and most notably a trough of low pressure in the Coral Sea is deepening and expected to activate into a fully fledged Coral Sea surface low as an upper trough moves over it from inland QLD tomorrow.
Primary tabs
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2022/07/20/lots-size-the-e-weekend-and-next-week
freeride76
Wednesday, 20 July 2022
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2022/07/18/plenty-swell-varying-sources-extended
freeride76
Monday, 18 July 2022
Surf comes from a wide variety of sources this week as a typical strong winter cold front gets shunted aside by a very La Niña looking synoptic pattern, more reminiscent of Feb/Mar than July.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2022/07/15/easing-weekend-waves-solid-little-wind
thermalben
Friday, 15 July 2022
Longer term has some some ordinarily unseasonable tropical activity in the Coral Sea, which is seemingly becoming the norm.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2022/07/13/raggedy-s-swell-spike-tomorrow-eases
freeride76
Wednesday, 13 July 2022
A trough line moving north-wards along the NSW Coast is spawning a surface low pressure system today, with the pressure gradient between the low and a high advancing through the interior creating a stiff S’ly flow along the coast.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2022/07/11/conditions-settling-down-quickly-another
freeride76
Monday, 11 July 2022
The remnants of the Tasman Low (ex ECL) are now drifting near the South Island, on top of a large high which is slowly moving out of the Tasman Sea. A high is approaching from the South Australian interior, with a trough expected to form off the coast later Tues and develop a broad, relatively weak low in the Central/Northern Tasman.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2022/07/07/tons-size-ahead-sun-winds-issue-saturday
freeride76
Friday, 8 July 2022
The main low is drifting towards the South Island and intensifying today, with gales to severe gales expected to retrograde NW back into the Tasman Sea.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2022/07/06/cleaner-days-and-solid-surf-ahead
freeride76
Wednesday, 6 July 2022
A massive cloud-band enveloping most of the Eastern Seaboard, tied to a complex low pressure system in the Tasman, and strong high pressure system with both systems slow moving. Multiple trough lines also complicate the situation, leading to uncertain movements of the main low, and development of secondary low pressure centres, of which one is expected to form off the Mid North Coast today.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2022/07/04/large-windy-and-dynamic-week-looking-it
freeride76
Monday, 4 July 2022
Tasman Sea is looking very, very spicy this week with our current low looking to meander N and E, then S and reintensify later in the week, spraying the East Coast with swell with more favourable conditions.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2022/07/01/tons-action-ahead-easterly-trough-low
freeride76
Friday, 1 July 2022
OK, here we go. We are starting to get some model agreement on a developing easterly trough low expected to form off the Sydney/Hunter coast through tomorrow. There’s still a degree of uncertainty as to the exact position of the low axis, which will make wind f/casts a bit rubbery and really, coming down to a game of kilometres.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2022/06/29/complex-outlook-somethings-likely-hit
thermalben
Wednesday, 29 June 2022
Looks like a quiet end to the week, with some major model revisions over the last few days - certainly not wiping out the expected major swell event, just shunting it down the timeline a little.
