We’ve got reasonable model agreement now on the trough of low pressure in the Tasman early next week. A broad area of low pressure  drifts NE to be close to Lord Howe Island on Mon, with ESE-E winds on the southern flank of the low pressure area. That system does look to persist in the Tasman at least until the middle of next week, generating fun sized SE-E swells.

Unfortunately this strong cold outbreak now looks to stall just too far West (behind the swell shadow of Tasmania) to really deliver any strong S swell to the East Coast, before weakening as it moves into the Tasman Sea swell window proper. 

Lots of action on the charts but not much of it will translate to meaningful surf for the Eastern Seaboard. The tropics remains active with a monsoon trough and convective activity strewn across the Top End, while the edge of the trough in the South Pacific has spawned TC Judy, with another system behind it. Both of those systems are now modelled to track quickly SE through the swell window with no major swells generated.

Models are now firming on a large tropical depression (possibly a TC) drifting southwards into the slot between New Caledonia and the North Island from mid next week. A broad, slow moving area of E’ly low end gales is likely on the southern flank of this system, initially favouring the sub-tropics, but radiating down to temperate NSW through next weekend.