Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 12th July)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Another small bump in S swell Wed with light winds tending NE in the a’noon
• Traces of long period S swell supply small waves for S facing beaches Thurs/Fri, not much elsewhere
• Tiny this weekend- S swell magnets may have a rideable wave Sat
• Small surf continues into next week, possible traces of E/NE swell filtering down from Coral Sea
• Front pushing into Tasman brings more small S swell pulses later next week
• Winter pattern of W’ly winds and small S swells looks set to continue 

Recap

Small, flukey S swells have continued to make landfall with reliable S magnets faring OK and a lot of places missing out. Yesterday topped out with some 3-4ft sets on the Hunter, 2-3ft elsewhere, clean under a mostly offshore flow before S’ly quarter winds kicked up in the a’noon. Still a few 3ft sets around this morning as a new pulse comes in a little ahead of schedule at reliable S swell magnets, bigger 4ft on the Hunter. Clean conditions with early W-NW winds expected to tend variable then light N-NE in the a’noon. 

Another day of the Hunter hoovering up small, clean S swell

This week (Jul 12-14)

A large high (1030 hPa) is now drifting across Southern NSW, in the process of setting up a ridge along the sub-tropical to tropical Eastern Seaboard, with typically lighter winds along the temperate NSW coast. Cold fronts have passed through the Tasman and the high pressure will now exert a blocking effect, steering fronts well away from the swell window or ensuring a zonal (W-E) flow through the end of the week and into the weekend. It’s quite a persistent pattern, breaking down mid next week. Small, flukey S swells get even smaller and flukier in the interim.

In the short run and todays pulse should wind back through the a’noon and into tomorrow with clean leftovers to 2ft at S facing beaches, a few bigger 3ft sets possible on the Hunter. An easing trend should be reversed in the a’noon by a small pulse of longer period S swell bringing a few 2-3ft sets at S facing beaches. Not much elsewhere. Clean conditions early with light NE seabreezes in the a’noon. 

Same again Fri. A small blend of S swell trains from the frontal activity in the far lower Tasman holds some 2-3ft surf at S facing beaches, still a few larger sets likely on the Hunter. Similar light winds, with an early W-NW flow tending to light NE seabreezes in the a’noon. 

This weekend (July 15-16)

S swell dries up this weekend leaving us with a very low energy swell regime both days. It should be clean both days, at least through the morning under an offshore flow, more NW on Sat, tending W/SW through SW-S on Sunday as a weak front and ridge build up the coast.

Not to sugar coat it, it’ll be tiny both days. Possibly a rideable wave Sat at the best S swell magnets. Very, very tiny, close to flat Sunday. 

Next week (July 17 onwards)

Nothing much to look forwards to for at least the first half of next week. High pressure moves NE of Sydney early next week with a weak onshore SE-NE flow likely Mon and tiny surf, which should continue through Tues. Winds may tend NW Tues as a front approaches but there won’t be much swell in the water to work with. Sub-tropical areas will see some small tradewind swell from winds in the Coral Sea but anything filtering down to areas south of the Mid North Coast will be negligible. 

Mid week sees a stronger front likely to push NE into the Tasman, with possibly a parent low well to the south. Wave models aren’t very interested in these features but it’s likely we’ll see another round of S swell pulses, possibly as early as Thurs, extending into Fri and the weekend. 

More zonal fronts approaching next weekend suggest further W’ly wind episodes and more small S swell pulses. 

Check back Fri and we’ll see how that is shaping up.