Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 21st July)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Strong though (generally) wind affected S'ly swell Sat
• Morning offshore winds (tending S’ly) and strong E/SE swell Sun, easing Mon with S’ly winds continuing
• Long period S’ly groundswell likely Wed/Thurs with good winds
• More S’ly swell pulses and light winds expected later next week and into the weekend

Recap

Pumping surf yesterday with solid 6ft sets, a few bigger ones reported from swell magnets. Conditions were primo for a good portion of the day under a light offshore flow before light N’lies kicked in for the a’noon. Today has settled down a lot with more inconsistent 4ft sets, clean under a light offshore breeze expected to tend mod SW/S through the a’noon before winds really wind up around dark.

Pumping yesterday

This weekend (July 22-23)

Few tweaks to the weekend f/cast. Fridays S’ly change is linked to a robust front (and long angular trough of low pressure in the Tasman) and the northwards intrusion into the Tasman will bring plenty of directional S swell- up into the 4-5ft range at S facing beaches, bigger 6ft at least on the Hunter. Mod fresh SW/S winds will be a factor although there is likely to be a window of cleaner conditions north of the Harbour. Those winds should drop out later in the day as the front retreats eastward but the S’ly flow will still confine clean conditions to more sheltered locations. In short, you’ll sacrifice plenty of size to find a clean wave but there’ll be enough energy to find a wave. We should see a modest kick in size from the E/SE through the a’noon which will get into those sheltered spots better and supply some 3ft sets.

The bulk of the E/SE energy from a well aimed fetch out of Cook Strait and extending back into the Tasman will be in the water Sun. It’s still looking good for sets in the 4-5ft range (more biased to 4ft) and winds improved through the morning with a light offshore W-SW flow, although there may be some leftover S’ly wobble across S oriented coastlines (Hunter especially). That S’ly flow looks a bit niggly through the day as a large high in the Bight starts to build a ridge along the coast, likely tending mod S-S/SE through the a’noon. Definitely better conditions through the morning.

Next week (July 24 onwards)

We’re still looking at a complex, dynamic week with a strong high moving across from the Bight and a coastal trough moving up the Eastern Seaboard expected to form a broad surface low off the Fraser/K’gari coast. Early stages of that pattern will maintain a fresh S-S/SE flow on Mon, with another front seeing a more S/SW-S flow Tues. So local winds will be a factor to start the week.

There’ll be plenty of residual E/SE swell and some S-S/SE swell in the water Mon as the fetch lingers near the South Island- holding surf in the 3-4ft range, easing through the day. Short range S swells from the front will likely supply increasing energy in the a’noon.

A mix of S swell trains and easing E/SE swells will likely see surf in the 3ft range at S exposed breaks ease during the day but local winds will be a problem at this stage.

Mid week should see winds back around to land and seabreezes. A really powerful front and parent low steams into the lower Tasman and storm force winds as it moves under Tasmania will supply long period S’ly groundswell wrap which should arrive Wed under current timing. With favourable winds S swell magnets could see sets in the 4ft range (possibly bigger outliers at deepwater adjacent reefs).

Favourable winds and S swells continue at lower levels Thurs.

Further ahead looks like settled conditions with light winds later next week and into the weekend, possibly with winds tending offshore as frontal activity sweep up over the region. More frontal activity in the lower Tasman suggests small S’ly pulses during that period. We’ll have a fresh look at size and timing when we come back Mon.

Until then, have a great weekend!