Incredibly, we’ve got more of the same for the weekend.
Primary tabs
TC Lucas will remain slow moving south of New Caledonia for a few days. Current model guidance suggests a reintensification overnight Thursday into Friday morning (see below), aimed perfectly within our swell window.
As discussed over the last week, we’ve got an active MJO phase across the region, and a strong high pressure ridge across New Zealand is cradling a conveyor belt of tropical lows, including one remnant and two existing tropical cyclones (TC Bina, TC Lucas, TC Ana - see recent chart from JTWC below).
We’ve got a warning out for a developing tropical cyclone north-east of Vanuatu, which will probably occur within the next 24 hours. This is contained with an active monsoon trough, which currently stretches from Indonesia, across Northern Australia into the western Pacific and then across to the South Pacific, somewhere south of the Cook Islands and about at SE Qld latitudes. More in the Forecaster Notes.
By and large, swell prospects for the next few days look much the same as the last few. However, conditions will change across the region, ultimately switching favouritism from the north to the south. More in the Forecaster Notes.
It's a pretty typical summer pattern, to be honest. Very bluebottle friendly, mind. More in the Forecaster Notes.
Long term maintains a whole stack of near-stationary swell sources in the Northern Tasman Sea, lower Coral Sea and South Pacific, so it looks like we’ll be back to the easterly swell machine for quite a few weeks. More in the Forecaster Notes.
One of the difficulties in preparing a forecast at a time like this, is trying to seperate the events of the last 24 hours from what’s expected over the coming days. More in the Forecaster Notes.
All eyes are to the south. More in the Forecaster Notes.
The long running easterly swell machine that’s provided an extended period of useful trade swells is finally drawing to a close. But there's a stack of south swlel on the way. More in the Forecaster Notes.