South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 31st May)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Large clean surf easing from Tuesday, towards a low point on Friday
• Building S'ly windswell Sat with fresh S'ly winds, easing Sun with improving conditions, though nothing great

Recap

It’s been busy! Friday’s late arrival of E’ly groundswell peaked with 5-6ft sets at exposed spots, before easing through Saturday morning. A new short range southerly swell built steadily through the day, however this event delivered a much wider range in wave heights than expected. Parts of the Mid North Coast saw bombs pushing 10-12ft however the Northern Rivers was smaller, peaking in the 8ft range, and SE Qld peaked around 4-6ft, with slightly smaller surf on the Sunshine Coast. Winds were generally fresh S’ly though many coasts saw periods of SW breezes through the mornings. Wave heights eased through Sunday with similar conditions. Today has seen a large, long period SE groundswell move up the coast and Northern NSW has delivered solid 8-10ft sets at exposed spots, with SE Qld building to a late 5-6ft at exposed spots, smaller on the points. Winds have been moderate S’ly, though with early periods of SW breezes.

Kirra late Monday afternoon

Snapper looking tasty

Monday Multi-cam lighting up

This week (Jun 1 - 4)

The fetch responsible for our current large swell has reached a peak, and is now slowly easing and rotating out of our swell window. This means we’ll see a gradual decrease in wave heights from Tuesday onwards. 

That being said, with a travel time of around 1.5-2 days from the fetch near the SW tip of New Zealand’s South Island - which still had active gales this morning (see below) - this means we’re looking at plenty of size for the next 24-36 hours.

Tuesday morning should still manage 6-8ft sets at south facing beaches south of Byron, and even Wednesday should be somewhere around 4-6ft early on, easing to 3-4ft through the day. Of course, locations not completely exposed to the south will be much smaller. 

Across SE Qld, we’ll see much less size. Tuesday morning will have the best of it with clean 3ft+ sets across outer points, and bigger 4-5ft+ sets at south swell magnets and exposed northern ends, easing into the afternoon. Expect a little less size across the Sunshine Coast. We’ll then see size down by a foot or so into Wednesday, smaller again on Thursday. 

No synoptic wind is expected for the next few days so expect generally clean conditions. Weak sea breezes are possible. 

Friday will see a low point in swell activity, and early light offshore winds will swing moderate S’ly into the afternoon across the Mid North Coast as a front pushes into the Tasman Sea. A small pulse of S’ly swell (generated by migrating fronts in the Southern Ocean) may provide minor waves at south facing beaches but there won’t be much in it.

This weekend (Jun 5 - 6)

Friday’s late front will be quickly moving and should generate a short-lived south swell for Saturday. 

Our surf model is a little optimistic at the moment, calling for 6ft sets at south facing beaches in Northern NSW, but the low periods and directional nature of the fetch allows for some caution, so we’ll probably see a peak closer to 4-5ft (smaller elsewhere). It’ll be pretty windy with fresh southerlies, so you’ll have to hunt around the sheltered southern corners for smaller but cleaner waves.

Across SE Qld, we won’t see much from this south swell. Most outer points may build to a slow 1-2ft, and exposed northern ends may see 3ft sets but they’ll be quite wind affected. 

Wave heights will then rapidly ease into Sunday with winds becoming light and variable under a weak ridge of high pressure. If anything, Sunday is the pick (especially in SE Qld) as the swell direction should tend slightly more S/SE, which should allow for some fun small beachies at exposed spots. 

Next week (June 7 onwards)

The Friday front is is expected to stall near New Zealand over the weekend and may induce a trough of low pressure over the North Island. It’s a low percentage event, but we could very well see a small E/NE fetch develop just north of the swell shadow (by Sunday), which may bring about a small E’ly swell for the East Coast mid-next week. But, now it’s probably my turn at being overly optimistic.

The next major trend in synoptics is for an amplifying Long Wave Trough across the SE corner of the country early/mid next week, which suggests some punchy south swell mid-late next week.

More on that in Wednesday’s update!