South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by James Casey (issued Monday 17th May)

Best Days: S swells peaking Tuesday/Wednesday biggest south of border

Outlook:

• Larger S swell set to peak around 4ft on Tuesday and 4-6ft on Wednesday (south of border) 
• Swell to fade into Thursday lingering around 4ft
• Another smaller S swell looks to fill in for the weekend (south of the border) while SE QLD relies on SE windswell no more than 2ft
• New E swell set to fill in from Monday/Tuesday onwards next week

Recap

Saturday saw 2-3ft sets with really nice banks along the beach breaks. While yesterday we saw the S’ly swell come up. South of the border it was a disjointed 3-5ft at south facing beaches, though no great quality with the fresh SW winds affecting conditions. For SE QLD the S’ly swell didn’t make much of an impact, just a lingering 2ft of E swell.

Today there were 2ft waves on offer becoming a bit wind affected in the afternoon with a fresh SE breeze. South of the border waves were 3-4ft for Ballina more like 3ft for Coffs, clean early before a fresh S wind made it all a bit choppy this afternoon. 

This week

With S swells back on the radar you can expect a fair bit of variation between beaches. S swell magnets will see all of the swell while protected southern corners and SE QLD will largely miss out on most of the energy. 

Tomorrow (Tuesday) we will see a mid period S swell arrive and hold waves in the 4ft range for S swell magnets south of the border. For SE QLD I wouldn’t expect most places to exceed 2-3ft. This swell is thanks to a cold front moving past Tassie with S winds directing swell up towards our coastline. Conditions will be nice and clean with light offshores early before a SE breeze makes things a little bumpy for the afternoon.

A larger, longer period swell will fill in on Wednesday thanks to a longer fetch with this swell originating in the Southern Ocean with a front earlier on the weekend. This swell will arrive around the middle of the day into the afternoon for the MNC and N NSW with sets up around 4-6ft for S swell magnets.  

Don’t expect too much of an increase for the Goldy or Sunshine Coast with just the S swell magnets noticing any difference by the time it arrives late Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning. 

Conditions will be clean early with a lighter, offshore breeze before winds swing SE in the afternoon making most places a bit bumpier from tomorrow into Wednesday.

The swell will hold into Thursday but begin to ease throughout the day with 4ft waves south of the border at S swell magnets easing to 3-4ft by the arvo. Winds will start out light and offshore tending stronger and SE for the Goldy and Sunny Coasts and becoming more light and variable for N NSW and NE for the MNC. 

Friday will see the last of the S swell easing to 2ft by the afternoon but with stronger S winds conditions won’t be great unless you hit it early. 

The weekend and beyond 

A SE windswell will create most of the energy for the weekend for SE QLD while another weaker S swell moves up the coast for south of the border. Don’t expect anything more than 2-3ft waves for the MNC and N NSW as a swell from a weak front moving past Tassie fills in along the coast. 

For SE QLD it’ll be a weak 2-3ft E/SE windswell for the Gold Coast, more like 3ft for the Sunshine Coast over the weekend. This will be thanks to the persistent E/SE winds driven by a ridge setup along the coast. 

At the start of next week there looks to be a new E swell set to fill in. This swell will start out with E winds funnelling into a region of low pressure as it pinches the ridge of high pressure. It will intensify as a low forms to the north of NZ with strong E winds funneling into the western flank of the low. At this stage it looks like the the low will move a bit too far south with the North Island blocking some of the swell potential but let’s dive into that more on Wednesday.