Dynamic week of large waves
South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by James Casey (issued Monday 24th May)
Best Days: Tuesday, Friday
Outlook:
- Solid sized surf out of the E/SE from Tuesday, 6-8ft for SE QLD and N NSW, 6ft+ for the MNC
- Biggest pulses of E/SE swell will be on Tuesday and Friday, 4-6ft, lingering around 3-5ft between pulses
- Strong southerly change on Thursday followed by a large S swell peaking Saturday and again on Sunday late/Monday early
- The swell will finally being to ease into the new week
Recap
There were decent waves on offer over the weekend with 2ft waves on Saturday, 2-3ft waves yesterday and 3ft waves today. This has been thanks to an E/SE windswell. So while it hasn’t been the strongest or most lined up swell there have been options around.
South of the border it’s been much the same with winds blowing mainly out of the SW. All in all it’s been workable but nothing too special out there.
This week
Well have a week of serious surf on the cards. A solid E swell from the low pressure system north of NZ has already been generated and is heading our way. Later in the week we have another solid S pulse arriving thanks to yet another low located west of the South Island.
Let’s start with tomorrow. The E swell will arrive overnight but build into the afternoon with a widespread 6ft expected with some larger 8ft sets for SE QLD and N NSW. The swell will rise fairly rapidly thanks to the gale force winds on the southwestern flank of the low north of NZ.
It will then ease a little but sustain decent wave heights, around 3-5ft, out of the E from north of NZ and SE thanks to SE winds funnelling out of the Cook Strait on the southeastern flank of the low. The E swell will ease as swell from the low is shadowed by the North Island. After the peak on Tuesday afternoon we will see some easing on Wednesday into Thursday before another pulse arrives on Friday with wave heights up around 4-6ft. 
Tomorrow winds will generally be the same as what they have been SW early and tending more SE in the afternoon. Wednesday will see winds change, starting more out of the W early before tending N in the afternoon ahead of a strong S change on Thursday.
This strong S change will push the low north of NZ away and to the east, although there’ll still be plenty of E swell that will continue to file on in from this system well into the weekend.
Strong to moderate gale force winds out of the S in the Tasman will be sustained into the weekend as a low forms just to the west of NZ, pinching a ridge and creating a decent southerly fetch.
Friday will see the first of the S swell although it won't be as noticeable as the strong pulse of E/SE swell keeping waves up around the 4-6ft mark. With winds light and SW for most of the morning there’ll be some nice conditions on offer before winds tend more SE for south of the border and the Goldy. The Sunny Coast looks like it could see offshore winds all day so it should be a decent day of waves.
The weekend and beyond
Saturday will see the S swell really ramp up as a decent fetch of sustained strong to moderate gales arrive. I’d expect waves up around 8ft for Saturday although with the acute swell angle not all of it will get around the corner to SE QLD. N NSW and the MNC will be solid though, probably too big for most locations. Protected points and southern corners will be your only option as the strong S winds continue. 
There’ll be a slight easing trend into Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning before another pulse of S/SE swell arrives Sunday afternoon and into Monday up around that 6-8ft range again.
Winds will be strong out of the S for the entire weekend which will be good for the points and protected southern corners and make everywhere else a bit of a mess.
The low will start to breakdown on Monday as it moves over NZ allowing conditions to begin to ease into the start of the new week. A high looks to move over the east coast bringing lighter winds and generally more settled conditions.
Comments
So 6 to 8 foot SE Qld on Tuesday ?
yeah, that seems pretty unlikely. 4 foot odd bigger set in the arvo is probable.
Nah it’ll be bigger but by the time it is big it will howling se...
Nice, can we please update/refresh the surf forecast tab claiming 3 foot tomorrow.
Must be new here
3 foot Hawaiian I guess
7.1m at 13.6 secs on Sat evening in NNSW with southerly winds. There's going to be some amazing footage out of this swell
Seeing how that low strengthened and on top of an already active sea state from slowly strengthening trades, we should definitely see 6ft sets across NNSW and SE Qld tomorrow when it peaks.
This ASCAT has 50kt barbs (mind the reversal to the west, far right of frame).
3-5ft with some odd 6footers is my call.
Agreed Steve. And I don’t think I’d call 3-5ft with the odd 6ft and 6-8ft splitting hairs!!! And the top end of this range won’t be until the arvo.
I feel it'll be a touch stronger, quick up and down due to it weakening and going behind the North Island, but strong at it's peak.
Be a good one to watch.
bets ?carton?
I think we are splitting hairs.
I expect a pulse.
I've got my eye on something different anyhow.
Will there be some size tomorrow morning?
surely depends on location. cant imagine the points being the same size as swell magnets
Exactly, I'm expecting most exposed spots to reach 6ft through the day, with select magnets seeing possibly 8ft sets.
on this swell angle, some of the biggest magnets are Points.
You do contradict yourself a bit mate, in between calling BS on the boys generally very accurate forecast. So oracle, what's your accurate call? Lets see who's on it or not...FWIW the super bank can't hold over 5 foot right now anyway and Kirra is pretty square. Size isn't everything :)
A mate is flying to the Goldy for a family holiday tomorrow hopefully he’s been a good boy and can sneak off for a couple!
will be interesting to see the effect of that slight retrograding action to energise friday's pulse
We have lift off..
Was watching it this arvo hoping for an early arrival.
Perfectly timed with darkness!
Geezus if that low does as forecast over the next few days later this working week/early weekend could be quite Fcking solid!!
Yeah Don!
Could it get to 20s?
Looking good for those wave starved surfers north of the sunny coast.
Meanwhile we'd prefer it not go over 8.
I mean 20s period. I’m guessing the source is too close but interested to learn a bit more from one I’ve been watching closely. Will watch the buoys on Friday’s with interest.
Whoa at Tweed buoy!
Could hear it rumbling during the night.
I’m just south of Tweed so this confirms.
Not surprised
Decent size through Greeny.
Quite sizeable off the Tweed Bar too.
Looks like James nailed the size, just not the timing. Has come in early and strong!
4-5ft here with plenty of gurgle through it from yesterday’s Sou-Easter. Few 6 footers.
Much cleaner up at Tweed where I am now. Fat burgers though.
Every part of 6-8ft on the Tweed this morning.
I just sat on Cabarita headland for half an hour and I’d call it 6ft on the sets. Admittedly there wasn’t much bathymetry to make waves stand up. Very fat and burgers. Didn’t look too hard work for the few crew out there.
Probably bigger on the tweed bar.
I surfed north of Burleigh this morning on the high tide - paddled out and thought I was in a good spot - and then subsequently got mowed down by a set that was easily north of 6ft. No other sets came through that big whilst I was out but the one that got me was a beauty. Nice rag dolling does wonders to wake you up
I checked a few places between Byron and Tweed through the high tide early this morning and saw plenty of 8 foot sets. Some places straight 6, others defiantly 6 to 8. It seemed to be the consensus among the crew watching too.
Thick closeouts lines this AM. Pretty much nowhere to surf around here.
Solid 8 foot here at my local on MNC...way out of control on the beachies though.
Noosa was barely breaking on the early high tide, but now it's starting to look pretty tasty.
Nice set just rolled down the point... hardly anyone riding those tasty lil' barrels right on the inside!
benny, ben, ben.. there is a bloody mal and dog riding contest on those tasty lill barrels on the inside.. how's their bloody timing
Quite an aggressive looking spectral chart!
First Point looking very tasty. Agonising to watch all those out there who for some reason don't have work @ 12pm on a Tuesday.
No one works in beach side towns unfortunately!!!
Good luck getting a tradie to finish any work off this week :D
4-5ft with 6ft+ sets south of Byron.
A bit disjointed but heaps of good ones.
Wouldn't call it 8ft but with that period it's got plenty of grunt.
Saw some double ups that you really wouldn't want to wear on the head.
Nice!
How’d you go Craig?
Not great, as usual the period was too strong for the beaches, big 6ft+ closeouts. By the time I could surf the northerly was ruffling the local reef and was a bumpy 4-5ft+. Called it as it got a bit busy as well. Better days to come.
No timber, no work. Just had 4 hours alternating between nationals and first point at noosa. Farkin cooking. Chest high drainers at first point on the turn of the tide. Beer o’clock. Hopefully my timber doesn’t arrive tomorrow either.
Exhibit A
Ugh. Shouldn't have picked IT as a career path. Very few variables to whether I work or not each day.
If it’s any consolation it’s the worst time ever to be a small business carpenter. With this timber shortage, we’re all stuffed going bankrupt. I’m still waiting for my timber delivery on a house at Sunshine that was due in January.
Flip man, that's shit. I really hope it picks up for you soon. Hearing today is a little smaller (and more crowded) out the points.
3 to 5 with bombs at mt cooly this arvo, onshore & square with big paddle
Noosa does look tasty. Looks like you moved the cam too, much better. I just got back from 2 years in the West. A sandbending bananagroper.
You gotta be taking the piss… noosaaa….it looks like it’s 1 foot !
Hi Guys,
I actually find your reports best for East Coast Australia, hence why I pay for this forecast. However, would just like some explanation on Tuesdays swell forecast. The period is under reported today, as per Tweed buoy and other forecasting sites. For example, Byron bay on magic seaweed, 9.5 feet at 15 secs, 6 am this morning that matches buoys and swell event at kirra this morning. The swellnet forecast has 2m at 9.9 secs. Just would like to know so I can factor in this in future forecasts.
Jeezarz, why the fuck would you try to head out across a bar today?
They were actually coming into port when they lost all power, hence the caught inside footage. they actually steered the unpowered vessel into the mouth of the tweed river before the coast guard came and collected them, so very good job by the skipper.
No they weren't Don. Saw them powering out from The Tweed into the breaking zone, could not believe what I was seeing. After nearly being capsized they then limped back into port through the river. I also rang Marine Rescue as soon as I saw what was unfolding.
Well then they lied to Ch 7 news as this is what they reported last night on the news
Better story for insurance.
Mental.
Our archive surfcam footage shows the boat coming out of the Tweed River, battling with the waves for six minutes before it all turned to shit.
Wow....
Thats crazy stuff...
Ludicrously..
good question.....wonder if they kept going or did a u turn back in......stupid scary situation ......so lucky cause thats a big wave ....also a big cat by the looks....dumb cunts
I have been at sea on a sailboat without an engine trying to come into port... fucking scary.....