South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 26th May)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Fun E'ly swells persisting Thurs AM, building PM, peaking Fri/Sat with solid sets at exposed beaches (great points)
• Freshening S'ly winds Thurs, becoming strong later Fri and peristing over the weekend
• Very large S'ly swell building over the weekend
• Best surf prospects early/mid next week as large S/SE swells slowly ease and winds become light and variable

Recap

Tuesday delivered excellent waves with exposed locations seeing 6-8ft sets thanks to a solid long period E’ly groundswell, though wave heights were smaller on the points. Clean conditions prevailed with generally light winds. Surf size eased back to 3-5ft this morning, and early clean conditions gave way to moderate afternoon sea breezes. 

This week (May 27 - 28)

So! Just jumping on to the Forecast Bench for a few days while James is away. Haven’t looked at the Tasman Sea charts in a while, how’s it looking?...

Oh shit. 

Straight back into the deep end, eh? Let’s get stuck in.

Before we look at that bloody huge south swell, let’s take a look at the low that generated yesterday’s impressive E’ly groundwell. The low is still very strong but it’s now positioned just NE of New Zealand’s North Island - still in the firing line for SE Qld and Far Northern NSW, but essentially tucked up inside the swell shadow for Southern NSW (see below). 

This means we’ll see the most size from this source pushing across most northern regions, and there’s a risk wave heights will become smaller as you head south. But, from what point? That’s always the trickiest part of the equation, as the Mid North Coast often performs better than expected from partially shadowed swells. 

This swell is expected to push through in several stages - an initial pulse around lunchtime Thursday, ahead of the main energy on Friday morning. Early Thursday should see residual energy from today, still persisting around the 4ft range at exposed beaches - though truth be told I haven’t had enough time to hindcast the last event - but that fits in with model data and James’ notes on Monday. A jump to 4-5ft is then expected into the afternoon, then increasing further to 5-6ft+ by Friday afternoon (smaller earlier). 

This size estimate is for exposed beaches in the north, so as always, expect smaller size across the points (and possibly south from about Yamba too). Due to the reasonable travel distance, expect long breaks between sets.

As for conditions, a front is expected to push up the Northern NSW coast tonight, probably reaching the Gold Coast just before dawn Thursday and the Sunshine Coast shortly afterwards. Winds may veer back to the SW across some locations (in Northern NSW) during the day but for the most part we’ll see fresh southerly winds favouring the regional points. 

A small S’ly swell will push into exposed south swell magnets (south of the border) into the afternoon, sourced from W/SW gales exiting eastern Bass Strait today - though it won’t really be noticeable beneath the E’ly groundswell. 

On Thursday a stronger front will round the Tasmania corner and align more meridionally (north/south) across the western Tasman Sea, before expanding eastwards (in fetch width) as a large Tasman low intensifies well to the east. 

This will push a surge of S’ly gales along the Northern NSW coast on Friday, gradually strengthening across the Mid North Coast from mid-late morning onwards, reaching the Far North Coast mid-late afternoon and then into SE Qld late afternoon.

Ahead of the front, winds should veer SW or even W/SW in a few locations, so this means Friday should very well see favourable conditions across most locations north of Coffs for a reasonable percentage of the day, even holding into the middle of the afternoon in SE Qld. 

There’ll be an accompanying short range S’ly swell for Northern NSW during Friday but it’ll be (again) overshadowed by the E’ly groundswell. 

So, keep an eye on winds but there should be some nice pointbreak options to finish the working week.

This weekend (Jun 4 - 5)

The E’ly swell will hold into Saturday but slowly ease through the day. 

However, we’ve got a massive south swell that will greatly dominate the weekend’s proceedings, sourced from a huge Tasman Low, forming in the wake of a strong frontal sequence pushing into the Tasman Sea today through Thursday. The low will meander off the west coast of New Zealand through Friday as a series of secondary fronts race up from polar latitudes. 

As for size, we need to keep in mind that the orientation of the core fetch will be almost parallel to the NSW coast (see below) - best aimed towards New Caledonia! - so wave heights will be smaller than that compared to a direct E’ly fetch of the same characteristics. 

However, fresh to strong S’ly winds (gale force in the south) will confine the only rideable options to sheltered southern corners and points - if they’re handling the size.

It's hard to be confident on size, but exposed south facing beaches in Northern NSW should see a peak by late Saturday somewhere in the 12ft+ range (expect smaller surf early). If anything Sunday may see a little less size, but a little more strength as the core fetch will have regrouped on the existing active sea state (on Saturday), pushing a secondary front that will maintain elevated wave heights through into Monday, as the swell direction slowly swings more S/SE. This should allow for a better spread of energy into sheltered spots, compared to Saturday.

It’s hard to estimate how much size loss will occur at each and every point and sheltered bay, but this is one of the more significant southerly swell events in ages, so expect many locations to be a washout. 

Across SE Qld, south swell magnets should building to somewhere in the 8ft+ range by Saturday afternoon, holding into Sunday, and most semi-exposed points should see large surf around 5-6ft at the peak of the swell. Expect smaller surf on Saturday morning, though still enough for the regional points. 

This event will also create a heavy northward sweep too, so if you’re planning to surf, you’re gonna need your paddling arms.

Honestly, the weekend looks a little too complex, large and windy to really find anything amazing - though still possible - so if you’re going to put in any miles, aim for unusual spots or super protected locations, and keep your expectations low. Big swell doesn’t necessarily equate to fantastic surf. 

Next week (June 6 onwards)

Winds will rapidly ease from Monday onwards under a local ridge of high pressure, though still maintaining moderate to fresh southerlies early Monday ay exposed spots. 

Although the low will weaken from Sunday onwards, a fetch of S/SE gales off the SW tip of New Zealand’s South Island over the weekend (see below) will maintain strong surf for Monday, still pushing 8ft+ across south swell magnets in Northern NSW. Of course, it’ll be smaller elsewhere.

SE Qld should see much more manageable surf in the 4-6ft range at semi-exposed points (bigger near 6-8ft at south swell magnets) though inner points will be much smaller. Wave heights will then gradually ease through the day, trending down through Tuesday and Wednesday towards a low point later Thursday or maybe Friday.

Note: this size range is bigger than what I would normally estimate from a fetch in this region (S'ly swells should always be played down north of the border!), however the sheer size of this Tasman Low and its sustained nature allows for an upgrade (working on active sea state etc).

In summing up the upcoming southerly event, I reckon the best waves will probably occur early-mid next week once things start to settle down. So, play the long game over the coming days and don't get too hyped up about the weekend, we there’s no shortage of energy inbound and we'll see waves for most of next week anyway. 

Longer term is suggesting a possible approaching LWT mid-late next week and an accompanying swell for the end of next week and the following weekend. I’ll have another update for y’all on Friday.