For my money, you’re best off flagging the start of the week and aiming for Wednesday through Friday.
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Not much surf is expected for the rest of the week.
Sunday's small Tasman Low has already reached a peak in strength, and is now easing.
Saturday’s late southerly change will evolve into a small Tasman Low through Sunday, and as per Wednesday’s notes we’ve seen daily upgrades in the model runs.
Looks like a tricky couple of days ahead.
The source of our current swell weakened considerably over the last 24 hours so we’re looking at a steady decreasing trend through Tuesday and into Wednesday morning.
The general swell trend should remain very large out of the south into Saturday morning, at a similar size seen this afternoon.
The synoptics look complex, but in reality the short term period has a relatively straightforward surf outlook. Big and windy from the south.
Synoptically, we’ll see a broad Tasman Low develop through Thursday that’ll end up displaying multiple low pressure centres. It looks like a complex, slow moving system that will occupy our swell window for quite some time.
The weekend forecast is relatively straight forward: we’re at the peak of this current event, so from tonight we’re looking at a slow decrease in size from the south, all the way through into Sunday evening.