We have a couple of flukey new swell sources expected over the coming days.
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We’ve got waves from just about everywhere this week.
Wow, what a dynamic week in store for Southern NSW. In fact the whole East Coast looks really exciting from a forecasting point of view right now.
There’s a more curious swell source on the cards, that was missed in Monday’s notes and is showing up in the model guidance for the end of the week.
The ridge will then hold firm across the Northern Tasman Sea through the rest of the week and even into the weekend.
The weekend’s southerly change will be associated with a surface trough, which is expected to stall just below the Mid North Coast on Sunday, freshening southerly winds through our short range swell window as a Tasman Low develops in the central/southern Tasman Sea.
Model guidance has marginally sped up the arrival of the southerly change on Thursday morning so it looks like our final pulse of SE swell will largely go to waste.
It’s worth noting that the swell models seem to be replicating the same problem we saw with last Thurs/Fri's SE swell.
I’ve had better weeks at the forecast bench. Just quietly, I almost threw a tanty yesterday arvo.
The remnants of ex-TC Gita flared up off the West Coast of New Zealand’s South Island yesterday, and it’s generating a new SE swell that will arrive through Thursday.