A slow moving low pressure system is currently off the QLD coast generating plenty of size for the subtropics. Windspeeds along the southern flank are just a notch higher than modelled on Wed so we’ll see a corresponding uptick in size across the f/cast region as swell radiates away from the source fetch.
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/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2022/12/01/low-pressure-in-the-coral-sea-supplies
freeride76
Friday, 2 December 2022
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2022/11/30/small-swells-and-onshore-winds-the
Small swells and onshore winds into the weekend with some potential for juicier surf later next week
freeride76
Wednesday, 30 November 2022
We are seeing the “schizoid” pattern now develop whereby a monsoonal trough is splitting off a low pressure trough along the CQ coast, supported by a high pressure belt from the Bight to the Tasman Sea, while fronts and a parent low are entering the lower Tasman. That is seeing a regime where both S swells and a developing E’ly swell event are both in play across most of the Eastern Seaboard.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2022/11/28/small-s-swell-pulses-tend-small-ene
freeride76
Monday, 28 November 2022
We’ve got an interesting looking pattern as we transition into Summer, with both active frontal systems transiting below the continent and a precursor monsoonal trough across the top end of Australia. A front pushing into the Tasman Sea and a deeper parent low bring S swell pulses this week while a trough of low pressure is expected to hive off the precursor monsoon trough mid week and sit in the Coral Sea later this week, bringing E swell for the Eastern Seaboard- initially to the sub-tropics and then spreading down to temperate NSW over the weekend at reduced levels.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2022/11/24/small-bits-and-pieces-over-the-weekend
freeride76
Friday, 25 November 2022
By Wed we’ll see a pattern change as a strong high pressure belt straddles Tasmania and we start to see the influence of a trough associated with the monsoon off the QLD Coast.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2022/11/23/strong-s-swell-pulse-incoming-tomorrow
freeride76
Wednesday, 23 November 2022
We’ve had the entrees for this S swell event and we’re now close to the main course with a deep low (977hPa) and gales tracking NE into the Tasman from behind Tasmania. These gales are on track to deliver the juiciest pulse of this event through tomorrow, with weak high pressure moving over NSW.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2022/11/21/another-week-over-lapping-s-swell-pulses
freeride76
Monday, 21 November 2022
Yesterday’s W’ly change was the herald for a strong frontal progression which is currently unfolding at the gateway to the Tasman Sea. We have a front tied to a small low E of Tasmania with a much deeper parent low well to the south of Tasmania. There are multiple swell generating fetches associated with this complex low arrangement.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2022/11/18/mixed-bag-over-the-weekend-s-swells-fade
freeride76
Friday, 18 November 2022
We’re past the peak of the current S swell event as the large low pressure system drifts towards New Zealand, weakening as it does so and a more mobile high pressure system moves north-east into the Tasman Sea, bringing N’ly winds.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2022/11/16/south-winds-and-swell-the-rest-the-week
freeride76
Wednesday, 16 November 2022
The low east of Tasmania moves NE and joins other areas of troughy low pressure to form a large low pressure gyre which occupies most of the Tasman Sea through the latter part of this week. Surf size will be limited by the relatively weak supporting high pressure cell which is currently tracking through the Bight. We’re still looking at plenty of moderate size surf from the S quadrant to end the week and carry through into the start of the weekend.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2022/11/14/energetic-pattern-week-plenty-wind-and
freeride76
Monday, 14 November 2022
Through the early part of this week the low slips SE of Tas and a complex, troughy pattern with multiple low centres sits in the Tasman. This complex low pressure area eventually gets squeezed by an oncoming high generating fresh S’lies and which overlap with deeper S’ly fetches to create a series of S swells later this week.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2022/11/11/few-options-the-weekend-if-you-can-work
freeride76
Friday, 11 November 2022
A Bass Strait fetch later Mon should provide some small refracted S swell later Tues, likely missing the South Coast-Illawarra stretch and showing from Sydney to the Hunter with some 2-3ft sets in the a’noon.
