Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 23rd Apr)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Slowly easing E'ly groundswell from Monday, minor pulse of short range E/SE swell Mon/Tues but also easing
• Small flukey S'ly swell Mon/Tues, and then another late Wed/Thurs (only favourable south swell magnets)
• Initial small increase in E/NE swell Fri PM
• Stronger E/NE swell Sat, with stronger pulses Sun/Mon
• Potential for low in the Tasman and sizey S swell late next week- stay tuned for updates

Recap

Slight kick in E/SE swell to 3-4ft Sat with light morning land breezes before S’lies kicked in. Size held into Sun morning before easing with a briefer window of light morning winds before S/SE winds kicked up. Today has seen more of an onshore flow develop with mod E/SE winds across the region making a mess of things and 2-3ft of swell, including some traces of long period S swell in amongst a jumbled sea state.

Still a bit of size over the weekend

This week (Apr 24-28)

As expected a monster high (1035hPa) is currently drifting into the Tasman Sea, roughly equidistant between the South Coast and Tasmania. A very firm ridge is established from the Mid North Coast right up to tropical QLD, with weaker pressure gradients along the temperate NSW coast. That high is expected to occupy the Tasman for most of the week - sitting just high enough to allow traces of S swell into the Tasman. The major swell generator will be a broad fetch of SE-E/SE winds in the Coral Sea/Northern Tasman which will be enhanced later in the week as a broad tropical low tracks southwards from New Caledonia and into the wide open Eastern swell window. This will keep the sub-tropical Points pumping and filter down to temperate NSW late this week and into the weekend.

In the short run and the high cell moves NE just off the Central NSW Coast, allowing a NE flow to develop with a light morning NW flow beforehand. There should be a fun mix of E swell and small S swell, offering up 3ft surf at most beaches, 3-4ft on the Hunter and other S swell magnets before a slight easing trend sets in through the a’noon.

We’ll see a slow easing trend in E quadrant swell through Wed into Thurs with 2ft+ surf Wed likely to bottom out in the 1-2ft range Thurs. That’ll be offset somewhat by another small payload of flukey S swell. Long periods will help but size is still likely to top out at 2 to 3ft at the most reliable S swell magnets Wed, easing from Thurs morning. Winds remain mod N/NE through the day with lighter periods of NW breezes early. 

Small surf continue into Fri morning, likely just enough for a grovel, with a small amount of NE windswell added to the mix. With the tropical low moving S/SW back towards the Tasman Sea a bump in size from the E/NE is on the cards for the a’noon. We’ll revisit the timing off this on Wed but it might be worth pencilling it in at this early stage. 

This weekend (Apr 29 - 30)

The wind outlook for the weekend is looking a bit unreliable with a trough expected to track North into the region Sat bringing a S’ly change, then retreat back south on Sun with winds tending N’ly again. We’ll see how that unusual pattern shapes up on Wed.

There’s more confidence on the swell outlook as the tropical derived low tracks between Norfolk Island and the North Island late this week and the down the inside of the North Island into the Tasman this weekend. 

That’s expected to generate some nice pulses of E/NE swell as it moves through the swell window. 

Under current modelling we’re expecting a nice pulse to fill in Sat, in the 3-4ft range with bigger sets possible.

A stronger pulse then fills in Sun up into the 3-5ft range. We’ll have to see how the wind pans out but with the favourable swell angle there should be options whatever way it swings.

Next week (Apr 31 onwards) 

Tricky outlook for the start of next week until we get more clarity on the trough expected to hover off he South-Central NSW Coast.

It may move offshore Mon with an offshore flow from Sydney northwards depending on the whereabouts of the low axis.

E’ly swell should peak Mon in the 4-5ft range, wth potential for offshore conditions.

Following that we should see E’ly swells on an easing trend with good odds for a widespread offshore flow as a broad low pressure area occupies the Tasman.

Models are offering a juicy outlook for later next week with the remains of the tropical low being absorbed into the more temperate storm track, merging with the broad low pressure area and intensifying a S’ly fetch adjacent to the NSW Coast. Under that scenario we’d se a rapid rise in S swell late next week, potentially sizey.

Let’s marinate on that and see how it’s shaping up on Wed.