Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 1st May)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• All day offshore winds extend Mon-Wed
• Strong E’ly swell extends into Tues, slowly eases into Wed
• Low point Thurs AM, with small S swell building during the day with SW winds
• Fun S swell Fri with offshore winds tending N’ly
• Small surf Sat
• Potential late S swell Sun
• Likely sizey S swells next week
• E’ly swell pulses in the mix from the weekend into next week
• Generally dynamic Autumn pattern continues

Recap

Winds were generally at the favourable end of a spectrum of possibilities as a low pressure trough hovered off the South Coast. Mostly offshore all weekend with a period of S’lies extending up to the Illawarra on Sat before tending offshore again. Surf came in at the top end of f/cast expectations with 3-4ft Sat, building into the 4-5ft range Sun. Today is a bluebird day with pumping surf- offshore winds all day with solid 4-6ft of E/NE swell. Hope you were able to get out amongst it.

Blue skies, sunshine, offshore winds and pumping surf to start the Magic month of May

This week (May 1-5)

Low pressure troughs off the NSW and SEQLD coast combined with high pressure over the interior and frontal activity to the south are driving a W’ly flow across the Eastern Seaboard, perfectly timed for a quality E’ly groundswell. We’ll see a slow easing of this swell event over the coming days with all day offshores expected. We should see some small S swell later in the week as a minor front/low pushes into the Tasman before a more substantial S swell event develops late in the weekend/early next week on the back of a cold outbreak and potential deep low in the Tasman.

In the short run and  great surf continues into tomorrow with 4-6ft surf slowly easing down through the a’noon under all-day offshore winds. 

Wed will see a more pronounced easing trend with early 3-4ft surf, dropping back to 2-3ft during the day. Again, winds should remain offshore all day- likely more W/NW than straight W. We’ll see a subtle shift in swell direction through Tues/Wed from E/NE through E to E/SE as the low tracks through the Tasman.

A low pressure system pushes E of Tasmania Thurs driving winds more W/SW-SW, then S’ly thrugh the day. Thurs morning should be the low point of the week with just minor levels of leftover E swell in the 2ft range or less. We’ll see a bump in size from new S swell likely from mid-morning -from both gales out of Bass Strait late Wed and SW winds in the Tasman. No great size is expected, 2-3ft at S facing beaches, bigger 3-4ft on the Hunter but S’ly quarter winds will be an issue.

Winds should go straight offshore again Fri morning as the low gets whisked away and a weak high moves off the Central NSW Coast. Fun sized S swell in the 2-3ft range, bigger 3ft+ on the Hunter will be on offer, with winds tending N’ly in the a’noon as the high moves off the coast.

This weekend (May 6 - 7)

Looks like a dynamic end to the weekend  with a low pressure system forming east of Tasmania on Sun.

Sat should be a small mixd bag of easing S swell and a small E swell signal filtering down from the South Pacific, with surf in the 2ft range or less. Clean under offshore W to W/SW winds.

Sunday’s surf will depend on the development and positioning of a low off Tasmania. It’s likely to start small, with freshening SW winds as the low winds up. We may see a late kick in new S swell- models are very divergent so confidence is low. Monday looks a better bet. Check back in Wed and we’ll update the outlook.

Next week (May 8 onwards)

South swell and plenty of it next week, although with so much model divergence we’ll just be sketching in the basic pattern here and fine-tuning size and timing through the week. 

EC suggests a major low in the Tasman Mon, moving NE and generating large S swells along the entire East Coast under fresh SW winds. 

GFS suggests a major frontal progression based on a deep parent low located in the Far Southern Tasman next week, with multiple pulses of strong S swell expected.

We’ll peg size at strong 6ft at this early stage, with upgrades possible (likely). 

There’s also likely to be some moderate E’ly energy in the water from a tradewind band and potential trough between the North Island and New Caledonia.

Considering the strong S’ly energy in the water, it’s likely to be the minor swell source for the temperate f/cast regions. Still possibly significant through depending on how it shapes up.

Check back in Wed and we’ll see how this active period is shaping up.