Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 26th Apr)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Fun sized E swell continues into Thurs with light winds AM, tending N/NE PM
• Low point in size Fri AM before a modest kick in E/NE swell in the a’noon- mod N’lies
• Stronger E/NE swell Sat, with stronger pulses Sun/Mon
• Tricky wind outlook for the weekend, should be periods of offshore wind and light SE-NE breezes both days
• Potential for low in the Tasman and sizey S swell late next week- stay tuned for updates

Recap

E quadrant swell still had plenty of kick yesterday with sets to 4ft providing plenty of energy across most spots under light winds. This morning has dropped a notch but there are still some tasty 3ft+ sets to be had with light morning land breezes tending light/mod NE through the day. All in all, a pretty tasty Autumn platter.

Some nice clean beachies this morning

This week (Apr 26-28)

Not much change from Mon- we’ve still got a large high in the Tasman located off the Central NSW Coast, with NE winds across temperate NSW and mod/fresh SE winds in the sub-tropics. The high has weakened a little faster than f/cast which has shaved off a bit of size, more noticeable in the sub-tropics. A broad trough of low pressure is expected to bud a surface low near New Caledonia over the short term, generating more quality E-E/NE swell as the low drifts through the South Pacific slot and into the Tasman.

In the short run and we’ll see a continuation of the N’ly pattern through the f/cast region with morning NW breezes tending N/NE in the a’noon. Fun levels of mid period E/NE swell from the top of the high hold inconsistent 3ft sets, easing through the day.

Friday morning should be the low point of the week. Similar winds are on offer- early morning NW breezes tending mod/fresh N’ly in the a’noon. As mentioned last Fri by Ben some frontal activity scooting across the Far Southern Tasman Sea Tues and into this morning will send some flukey S swell up to the usual swell magnets. Keep expectations low but a few 2ft sets (2-3 at some Hunter coast locations) will be on offer Fri morning. We should see a little bump in size from the E/NE as that fetch starts to intensify today. Sets back up into the 3ft range are on offer if you can get out of the N’ly wind.

This weekend (Apr 29 - 30)

OK, we have more clarity on the wind outlook for the weekend, but it’s still looking dicey so make sure you tune back in Fri.

The gist of the uncertainty is a trough expected to hover around the Sydney region Saturday/Sun. 

Latest modelling suggests the lingering trough draws a W-NW flow for most of the morning, with winds tending light SE-NE before a late S’ly change. There should be plenty of quality options available as a nice pulse of E/NE swell fills in with sets to 3-4ft building in from the morning. 

Sunday sees the trough still lingering about the Sydney-Hunter region with good odds for a light/variable flow most of the day. We’ll finesse the wind outlook on Fri but you’ll want to pencil in a go out with quality E quadrant swell up a notch from Sat, likely in the 3-5ft range. There might be some local NE windswell in the mix as well from winds feeding into the trough line- not greater than 2-3ft.

Next week (Apr 31 onwards) 

Monday is looking potentially good to great, as long as current modelling holds and the trough moving out into the Tasman brings a widespread offshore flow across most of the region, Tuesday as well.

E’ly swell should peak Mon in the 4-5ft range, wth potential for offshore conditions. Slowly easing through Tuesday. 

Following that we should see E’ly swells on an easing trend with a widespread offshore flow as a broad low pressure area occupies the Tasman.

Models are offering a potential juicy outlook for later next week with the remains of the tropical low being absorbed into the more temperate storm track, merging with the broad low pressure area and intensifying a S’ly fetch adjacent to the NSW Coast. 

EC is still interested in this scenario with the formation of a Tasman Low late next week and sizey S swell next weekend.

GFS is suggesting more modest frontal progressions into the Tasman before a deeper fetch generates some longer range S swell in the same time frame.

Check back Fri and we’ll see how it’s shaping up as well as taking a final pass at the weekend outlook.