Billabong Pipe Masters: Early Forecast
It's been a long month between World Tour events, especially with the World Title hanging in the balance and all sorts of possibilities about the looming clash being played out across the internet. Will Parko finally shed his bridesmaid tag? Will Slater go out on a high?
Speculation aside it's safe to say that the bigger the swell is at Pipe the harder Parko's task will be. His main threat through the early rounds are the wildcards, Pipe specialists who thrive on genuine size and have an advantage over him if it's big. If it's not, and the swell is small to mid-size, then the chips fall Parko's way as the wildcards' advantage is negated.
So, which will it be...?
We're now less than a week away from the start of the Billabong Pipe Masters and there's swell on the way. We expect proceedings will kick off on the second day of the waiting period this Sunday, however before we get to size there are a few pertinent points that need to be covered.
Over the past few weeks northerly swells have been pushing down from the Aleutians with no serious groundswells since an early season Jaws session in October. The October swell began to clear the sand off the Pipeline reef that builds up over Summer and can cause the wave to close out. Unfortunately the recent run of northerly swells has begun to push the dreaded sand back into place.
The swell that's expected to arrive for the second day of the Pipeline waiting period will be from the west-northwest and should peak at 6-8 feet. The size and direction of the swell should start to clear away the sand build up, but the end section is likely to be closing out early in the piece. Also Backdoor will be a less likely proposition meaning Parko and Slater may have to hone their backside tube-riding skills on Pipe's lefts.
Does that fit Parko's gameplan, or does it favour Slater? Perhaps it's the wildcards who'll see the most benefit? At this, mid-size Pipe, none of the players appear to have a clear cut advantage. Let the speculation continue...
The swell in question will be generated in the North-western Pacific Ocean over the next few days as a low spinning off from Japan deepens into a broader swell-producing system during the next few days while tracking towards Hawaii. As the storm approaches the islands it is forecast to retract back to the north resulting in the swell swinging more north-west into day three while easing.
Beyond that the Pacific Ocean looks as if it will die down through the weekend, resulting in a few small days through next week ahead of a possible renewal of NW swell energy the following weekend. We'll provide another update on Swellnet in the coming days so keep an eye out. //CRAIG BROKENSHA **For the most recent forecast update check my comments below**
Comments
The swell due to peak on Sunday morning Hawaii time (day two of the waiting period) has been upgraded with the weather system being slightly more intense and expected to push closer towards the islands.
Our model guidance predicts 8-10ft surf early Sunday out of the W/NW before easing back to 6-8ft during the afternoon and then down from 5-6ft from the NW on day three (Monday) of the waiting period.
There's likely to be a few lay days through the second half of next week ahead of a possible long-range W/NW groundswell in the 6ft range for Saturday the following weekend.
Totally Red Lamping for pipe!!!!
And just for an exciting prelude, how was Adam Melling's win... GAH!
What's the chances of them running in smallish conditions Saturday and wrapping the whole show up by Monday? They always seem keen to get Pipe over and done with pretty quick if they get the chance.
It'll depend on how the long term forecast looks. If there's a chance for a decent swell later in the period they'll hold back. Especially with a World Title on the line - if Parko or Kelly got dusted in Round 1 (after being held in small, average conditions) then there'd be an uproar.
I also didn't think it was possible to complete this event in under 4 days??
I thought the main seeds don't drop into the draw until Round 3??
The last two days of the waiting period last year were epic flawless pipe. Do you run finals day in average conditions or risk it? Last year was a poor choice. Pressure is on with WT on the line
Yeah Mick, the top guys don't pop up until Round 3, so hopefully they get to run the contest in the biggest and best waves through the period.
Craig, the biggest stuff is supposed to arrive Sunday (Hawaii time), and with the comp not kicking off until Saturday (Hawaii time) Can they actually run Rounds 1 and 2 all on Saturday, so that the top guys surf the biggest and best waves in Rd 3 on Sunday morning?
They ran double heats in a crossover at pipe before....someone needs to fiqure out how many heats they could get through on one day. 8 and 1/2 hours less 2 x change overs double heats thats 32 heats. That would get through rounds 1 and 2 on one day, allowing for round 3 to hit the water on Sunday. Makes for great viewing double heats
Well let's hope they do that, although latest GFS certainly has upped the anty for that W/NW later in the following week, so if this forecast keeps up, they may just wait til then anyway for the top seeds, if the inconsistent swell proves to difficult for overlapping heats this weekend.
Parko going left at pipe! first time for everything I guess, looking like a textbook Slater claims world title at pipeline finish for the tour 2012.
Don't think inconsistency will be a feature of this first swell.......the head of the fetch of that system nosed to within 800nm of the islands, with the fetch moving in a well aligned direction compared to the Hawaiian great circle rays. IE Most of the energy aimed at Hawaii.
The following swell(s) look more inconsistent as the fetch remains well west of the dateline.
Parko was runner-up last year at Pipe going mostly left.
The swell on Sunday won't be inconsistent at all Don. The weather system is pushing right in towards Hawaii.
The second swell for next weekend however doesn't look that special at all to me Don and will be very inconsistent.
Totally correct Steve.
Fair enough then. Thanks guys. Let's hope they run overlapping heats on Sat then!!!
All of which makes me wistful for the Outsider's pithy prose as an antidote for what will no doubt be execrable commentary of the most important event in recent memory.
The Pipe Masters draw has been announced. Both Parko and Slater are seeded into Rd 3 with Parko surfing against either Taylor Knox, Billy Kemper or Travis Logie. Meanwhile Slater will have his first surf against either Pat Gudauskas, Shane Dorian or Damien Hobgood.
They're both fortunate that they've avoided any Pipe specialists in Rd 3 but there's a lot of competitive experience in that bunch. Still, I'd say Parko has a marginally easier draw.
http://www.pro-surfing.com/alhunt/files/2012evt12.pdf
Second that, Ben send the outsider in. There's a flight going tonight $1400 return. Surely Old Baldy would let him put up a tent out the front
Imagine the log taking down Parko x2 to lose the title.
Billy kemper will beat parko...
Anything can and will happen. Just charge it Parko
Stu,
funny.
calling Taylor, Kemper and Travie as easy draws is not going to do anything but motivate them to bust it harder that they usually crack it... Which might just do the opposite for Mr Parko.
did you place money on BKS or something? ;-)
Well so much for Parko's 'easy draw'. Despite getting confirmation from the ASP the draw unfolds slightly differently than noted above and Parko has now drawn Pipe specialist Kalani Chapman, who's already taken down Tiago Pires and Ace Buchan. Meanwhile Slater has Billy Kemper who's beaten Taylor Knox and Michel Bourez.
Agree stunet, no offence to Billy Kemper but who da fuck is Billy Kemper? on the other hand Kalani Chapman was on fire today he could go all the way. How good was Dorian too?? man he is in the form of his life!with the care free attitude..sick watchin' pipe go from 3-5 to 8-10..watch out for the Hopgoods..sick comp so far and its only day 1..C'mon Parko!!
Would you throw a heat for Parko??
looks like swell peaked during the night. Guess was difficult to forecast as Surfline had it peaking sun morning too. Was the peak traveling faster than expected or just a smaller fetch of large waves? going to be alltime backdoor this arvo with swell swing more north and low tide. Natural footers will be fav.
@stu So it gets all re-seeded at the end of round 2....Kelly takes on Billy - Joel takes on lowest seed or is he surfing aginst Sebas - does anyone know???
Dual heat format is a complete winner. Interesting Kelly came up with the idea. Can complete an entire CT event in 3 days.
yep Stu, Joel has Kalani Chapman in rnd 3...worst possible draw
Yeah Mick, the peak was shifted to midnight Saturday Hawaii time over the weekend. The next swell for the Friday coming doesn't look that special and will be very inconsistent so hopefully they get through as much as they can today and early tomorrow.
funny mother nature played her hand last nite from just after the comp till dark...biggest waves of the weekend...and parko...well its history now.....in the 1/4's and looking ..calm!!!!
Wow, that is amazing Brutus - buoy data doesn't show any major trend since yesterday morning - yet the surf was small enough this morning to call a lay day (compared to yesterday which was pumping). Very strange!
Latest Forecast Update: After a couple of excellent days to kick of the Pipe Masters, we're looking at a few lay days through the middle of the waiting period.
A new long-range W/NW groundswell is due to fill in on Friday and peak at 4-6ft during the day with nothing too significant beyond this besides a smaller NW swell to 3-4ft Tuesday week.
So with 13 heats (approximately 7.5 hours) of competition to get through we're confident they'll finish and crown the World Champion and Pipe Master on Friday Hawaii time (Saturday Australian time).
Brutus, how big did it get in the evening and was the backdoor firing crazy - you got the heaviest wave I ever saw live at Backdoor super early one morning must have been in the 90s. Everyone on the beach had given up, but you got spat out
Craig - is that 4-6 Hawaiian or 4-6 Oz? Trades are in but the direction of the swell seems more NE for Friday or am I looking at the wrong shit
If the comp finishes in one day, Kelly could have 5 heats. Ha that may be too much for the old fella!
Gee, you wanna hope Slater doesn't make the quarters.
Need him to lose both the round 4 and round 5 heat for Joel (who's already made it to the quarters) to win the title.
Otherwise, from the quarters and beyond, Joel needs to finish 1 place higher than Slater.
If they finish equal, Slater wins it.
MF, it's 4-6ft Oz, and the swell direction is very W/NW. Agreed, strong trades, but Mr Carroll assures me this tradewind swell won't be seen at Pipe....march straight past.
Yeah, as Don's stated Mick, 4-6ft oz so 1.5-2x overhead.
That's the beauty of looking at spectral forecast data as well, this W/NW groundswell is hidden under the 4m's of E/NE trade-swell so it's impossible to pick by looking at Buoyweather and Windguru etc.
Hey Mick-free thats a funny story,was out early with RCJ and he hassled the shit out of me for the first wave....got the second and actually came out at OTW...RCJ is still spewing...
so Sunday nite there were 10+ sets (hawaiian)....feathering on 3rd reef washing thru...insane waves at both backdoor and Pipe.......spoke to Denis pang this morning he got washed in at Sunset 1/2 hour before dark...12 ' + sets.....
Spoke to Louie yesterday.....he reckons 4 - 6' Friday .....strong east winds so should be a lotta backdoor...go parko.....
Haha, classic story Brutus, and that Sunday evening pulse of swell is pretty amazing and hard to explain!
classic, I'm pretty sure Joli got a sequence of photos of that wave that morning but then stopped shooting.
Shame they didn't just run the live webcast right through until dark. Would have made some incredible viewing for us punters. Much like volcom fiji
In a tennis analogy its advantage Parko, and Kellys not great in the 4th nolosers round.
Feathering 3rd reef, how many on the backdoor??
Brutus two questions on the low down - is Kelly pulling stumps if he wins Pipe? and have you ran over your old mate figj with the fluoro pink bits.
yeah no-one except Noah Johnson picked the swell increase...hows this for a theory...the swell was soooo west that Kauai blocks a bit of the swell,as the swell went north there was a pulse.....there was amazing waves at Backdoor,as big as I have ever seen.....there should be some amazing photos.....and in the middle of it all 2 guys in front of the house had a full MMA fight.......talk about raw energy!!!
there were so many guys out...60 +....
the interesting thing with Parko and Kelly is ,that if Kelly has to go thru the round before the quarters he will have to surf 5 times if he gets to the final...Parko 3 times......now thats an advantage....
I reckon Kelly will go next year as with the new tour.....his manager is involved and Kelly is tooo big a draw card....I am sure Kelly will wnat to be part of the NEW tour....its hopefully the start of a much better tour and Kelly was instrumental in setting up the new tour...it needs him!!!
as for Fig Jam......hes on Mauii...told a lot of friends to be careful,as he might take an IVO out.....big pussy in life....
hey Brutus, do you mean Kelly adv...surf five times, got the feel etc, or parko 3 and fresh?
completely off topic...surfed a light green board of yours, 6'0" 19.5 2.5 square tail from zaks... didnt do it for me at all...traded for same dims darker green round tail which you made for steve...magic! 300% better...boards a bit old and worn now, anything new shapewise in pipeline?
its advantage Parko.. although he will have face off against Dane or CJ in the quarters. World title could be decided right there.
Whether Slater has to surf 4 or 5 times I still reckon he has the advantage going into the last day. As much as I'd like Parko to win Slater on a confidence-building roll into the finals will be a very hard juggernaut to stop.
Parko has the advantage
Kelly needs to make the quarters before the title race can begin.
Parko got to surf round 4 in his prime conditions, 6ft backdoor.
Kelly might have very unpredictable conditions if the swell jumps with a big period (lulls) or tricky conditions with smaller period.
Plus as Brutus said if he does make quarters it could be after surfing 2 more heats on the day, whilst Parko wont have even surfed at that stage.
however Ziets might make the quarters or semi against Parko.
Still, Kelly gotta make quarters before his title race starts,
Parko is already there
it looks like the swell will build thru the morning..Kelly's first heat will be interesting as that Medina kids is no slouch when it comes to hassling ....and is damn good in left barrels....
they keep saying that it will be a pipe swell....but some of the other locals her say it will be a mix....its game on but parko is already in the 1/4's...over to you Kelly......
These may be the ramblings of an old man and can't give you specifics, but seems that Kelly has been losing quite a lot in the fourth round (no losers round) this year. Ever the strategist, has this enabled Kelly to surf against a lower seed surfer in the fith round, spring-boarding him into the finals?
I still stand by my call that Parko should have the title already. Kelly should have had a pair of nines at the hands of Ace and Dusty.
Gonna be a thrilling end to the year all the same.
Go Parko!!!
Craig, forecast for tomorrow seems to be significantly downgraded. I can't see much more than an inconsistent 4ft/4ft+, maybe, if we're lucky, the very odd freak 5ft set?
Also, I'm a little concerned that E'ly, trending NE'l tradewind swell might just get into pipe and wobbly up the swell?
Thoughts?
Don my forecast written over 3 days ago was 4-6ft. How is 4-5ft a 'significant downgrade'?
I'm still sticking with 4-6ft, albeit very inconsistent.
As for how the windswell will affect Pipe, I don't have a lot of experience with this setup, but Backdoor will probably perform the best.
Geezus Craig, I wasn't being critical of your 3 day old forecast mate. Merely just stating the models have downgraded the swell from 6ft@14-16 sec to 4ft@13-14 sec.....to me that's a significant downgrade.
I'm still seeing the same 1.7m at 16s so I'm not too concerned. The main thing is, is that this won't be all time Pipe/Backdoor at all, more just a 'contestable' day with a lot of weight and importance to it.
24 hours until all will be decided!
Go Parko!
Frothing.
Hmmm, Slater looks rattled.
And he just snapped his board.
Ben, a few comments have been made (can't remember if it's on here or another forum) that Slater likes to lose Rd 4 as it sets him up for a lower seed.
I have to say after watching Slater's performance this morning, it certainly looked like he threw the heat!!!
Certainly looked out of character for Kelly. But then again it's better than ripping all event and peaking before the Final!
I'm not really that up to date on Comp . Surfing ,But i have competed and Judged at local level . Once or twice .
Joel 's first decent wave in the Semi . Foamball ride then roundhouse cutty , gets a 5.50 .... okay he fell on the bounce back but surely the roundhouse could be considered completed before the bounce back .
Its like as if he lost points for the Tube ride . If the tube ride was posted alone itr would have been atleats Mid 6'S !! ???
PARKO WORLD CHAMP! YEEEEAAAHH!!!
Who would have thunk that a guy who lives in L.A. ...
would beat Bob Kelly Slater at Pipe.
Thus handing Joel his first World Title.
Congratulations, Joel Parkenson !!!!!!!!!
World Champ.
Fantastic stuff Parko! Well done.
Now for some icing on the CAKE .....
True words, southy. What a glorious day. Joel Parkenson earns himself the 2012 ASP World Championship, and Pipeline Pro 2012 all in one day!
Young bucks and veterans?.. Take note. And prepare yourselves for Parko to continue on thru his late 40's!
I couldn't watch the final but saw the kelly/Kerr heat here at work. I was going beserk!!!
Fuck yeah Parko!! A most deserving winner.
Congratulations.
well deserved win joel.......what a fuckin win, even better when a world title win = = = a million dollar bonus from billabong, god help coolangatta .
I'd promised 'family time' this morning so walked out during the quarters. Set off for a fete in Manly village. While down there my phone was beeping non-stop and I started checking the Twitter feed. The final straw was a message saying: "I can't believe you're missing this." Well, neither could I.
So I laid it on the line and said I HAVE to watch this competition, left my partner at the fete with three babies and ran back to the car. Had to pay top dollar to get my car out of the car park because I didn't have the ticket and I wasn't running back to the fete to get it. Hammered home just in time to see the Slater v Kerr semi and Joel take the title. Glad I did because it was an epic moment - spine tingling. Big congrats to Parko.
Unfortunately all the babies started crying at the fete and my partner had to wheel them home. I feel like a prick now and I'm very deep in the shit. Very deep.
What a day of competition! It was enough to make a jaded ex-comp surfer holler with joy.
Congrats to Parko a most deserving victor.
Stunet that made me laugh.
Women- they'll just never understand, will they?
;)
Ha Stu, had the same thing today had my first contact session this morning with my son who was kidnapped 2 and 1/2 years ago by his Mother. Was as nerve racking as your first paddle out at pipe. Got back to see the ocean pull its pin on Kellys famous relationship in his heat with Kerr's. Great day for surfing! Hopefully Brutus gives us a lowdown.
Contestable surf completed in 3 days in a waiting period that won't deliver any better conditions. I think Kellys format is a winner for viewers too especially the dual overlapping heats in the early rounds.
A million bucks won't help the bottom line for Billabong, but maybe they will sell a few more shorts.
Congrats to Parko, Yadin unlucky
Great to hear about you and your son Mick, especially on such a sad day.
I caught it on the side of the road while coming back down the Northern Beaches from a couple of surfs.
Put the Iphone stream on and saw most of the Kelly and Kerr heat from the front seat of my car. I found it frustrating that Kelly didn't really get many chances in the heat against Kerr as I was looking forward to a final showdown.
But as the clock counted down I couldn't stop grinning and was tempted so honk the horn a few times, but let it be.
Congrats Parko!
Awww, great news Mick, seriously unreal, and I hope it keeps getting better for you.
And what about it Brutus? I saw your ugly mug on the webcast and you were right there in the thick of it: what's your report?
The other bloke is Rushy, the lucky bastard who won a trip to the Pipe Masters courtesy of his wife. Check in when you get a chance, mate. Love to hear your take on it.
was Daddy day ( Saturday ) in Southville too .
Managed to watch to watch all the Quarters whilst my boys didn't lose it .
But managed to Pull , the " I've got to go to Work " rouse ..... a quiet can or tow at my Desk ...
almost trashed the Computer when " I thought " there would be a scoring mismatch if they " both made the
final . ( Parko's semi ) ....
Only to ride every ride on the edge of my chair .
I think Josh Kerr deserves some sort of OAM ... seriously if Kelly had of got that first wave in the Semi ???
But i won't go there , for fear of sounding too much like a few other Conspiracy theorists that spew on these walls , all too Often ...
Congrats Joel .... maybe a " cement Mixer " or two for you tonight .... ! YEEEEW
well what a fucken day!!!!!!!!!!
still got a bit of a sore head haven't had a beer in 6 years........the emotion of the day with the back ond forward sparring,if Kelly won...Parko had to win,and if Parko won Kelly had to win..so many epic moments....Kelly had to fight for his life against his good mate Dorian...and to me this exhausted him to where in his semi he just didn't come out a barrel which would have been a 10.
Shane was awsesome...the heat was incredible.....so much for the not know it alls who were claiming he would let Kelly roll thru.......I think this heat was a defining moment for Kelly's world title....
Parko was relaxed and when he came out of the water after the semi I was with Mick.....he had a look of a man possesed and was ready for the final......I reckon he could have taken on anyone at the moment in any sport he was so focused,relaxed but ready for war if that makes sense.....
Mick was so emotional he could barely talk during the semi...I walked up to him and realized that this was probably the scond best day of his life ,his best mate about to become part of history with him...but he was sorta speechless.....
and then Kerrsy.......what a bloody great surf warrior ......looked knocked out in his 4 th round on the beach.....hospital....and came back like mongrel on heat and surfed one the heats of his life against Kelly.Kelly had the chances but looked like he was starting to fatigue.....by 0.1%........
the emotion at the house was just mind boggling....so many hawaiians there supporting.....uncle brian,Makua,Bruce,Kamu,......aussies everywhere,Monica riding every wave of Her Husbands and Kelly too....
as the countdown for kelly was being called.....it felt like the whole place was going to blow up....the electricity in the air was .....to the point of insanity...and then the whole house just erupted.....in an emotional nuclear detonation......
In my 40 years in surfing......I have never cried....at a surf event...or even close.........and for anybody out there that say real men don't cry.....I feel sorry for you.....I watched tears flow,Parko came up and said to me don't make me cry again ,had a hug and both teared up.....
fucken Epic day,epic result......and never has there been a more deserving world champ...on par with Occys win......makes me wonder if Occ had have won in Hawaii........
so there it was and is.....and how sweet it is.....
Holy shit. What a recap Brutus.
yeah just started writing and it all sorta poured out.......still pretty emotional about the whole day.....once in a lifetime kinda stuff!!!!
Now that the world champ has been decided I am wondering what Swellnet will use as dispatch topics for the next few months.
Mmmmmm, Parko back to back?, Slater to retire?, That new kid (insert whatever name you want - should be good for many topics) on the block - is he ready to take the next step?
How about less tripe and more substance over the festive season Ben.
Huh?
Hey everyone! Welcome to 'Floyd's Fantasy World' where he accuses Swellnet of blocking up the Dispatch column with Parko vs Slater stories!
This is despite Swellnet posting a GRAND TOTAL OF ONE Parko v Slater stories in Dispatch - this one, and it's a forecast! So come on kids, be like Floyd and ignore our latest news, like:
Historic Surf Management Plan in Queensland
First Tropical Cyclone on the Charts
Surfing Australia Book Tour Heads South
Australian Open of Surfing postponed till 2014
Daly Head National Surf Reserve Dedication Weekend
Liminal: An exhibition of paintings and ceramics by two surfing artists.
'Floyd's Fantasy World', where if you don't like something everyone else must hate it too!
Just don't mistake it for 'Floyd's Fundamentalist World.'
Hahahaha Stu. You sound like you have worked as a spruiker at one of those $1 shops on Pitt St in Sydney.
Are you still in the shit with the Mrs!!!!!!!
You know you are very funny sometimes Stu, your last post made me piss myself.
It seems my questioning of Swellnet's bromance with pro surfers rattled your chain and you have come flying out of the dog house all teeth and slobber.
By the way when is the misses letting you back in the house?
Aloha Stu,
Sorry to disappoint but I was back in Oz for the final. Watched it on the net though, right from the start of the day.
Wow - just amazing. As an Aussie, fantastic to see "Mr Nice Guy" Parko to win it all at the end, but all those in the finals added to an epic event that will long be remembered.
Did take a trip up to the North Shore while we were in Hawaii, but it was a lay day (bummer). Still saw some crew out at Pipeline and Sunset. What an awesome place.
Got a couple of days surfing at Waikiki, which was fun. Although nothing like the North Shore, I mananged to rip up my foot on the reef, but had a ball.
Mele Kalikimaka to all!
Bullshit update from Brutus, I re-read it twice just to feel the rawness!! Incredible that you were there to be a part of it.
Someone get a interview from him!
I noticed on the highlights real that Randy Rarick was calling NE swell at pipe with a building NW swell. I missed watching some of the finals live, but how did this play out throughout the day?
Also from the view on the tele Pupo got a crazy wave air drop backdoor keg against Kelly seemed underscored - got a high 8. any other dubious ones?
Kersy legit title contender next year goes the hammer when up against Kelly
Yep, straight up, MC Brutus that was a gold recap. Fuck the spelling errors and bad grammar, there ain't no substitute for enthusiasm. Cheers MC.
Thanks for that MC, really captured the emotion and feeling of the moment!
Re swell, I didn't see too much of the final day either but heard it was generally 4-6ft with a couple of 8ft bombs, and that was from the W/NW.