La Niña Spring Update
Prior to the electric telegraph, meteorologists had few tools to forecast the coming weather.
Sometimes signs presented themselves: pre-frontal clouds, red skies in the morning, falling barometric pressure, but without them forecasting wasn't far off guesswork.
This gave rise to an approach to forecasting called the Persistence Method, which could be summarised as 'tomorrow equals today'. Asked what the weather tomorrow will be like, weathermen of yore would describe what they saw out the window today.
When the weather is in a steady state - such as what the Eastern Seaboard has been like the past month or so - it's easy to believe that the weather tomorrow, next week, or even next season will simply follow on with more of the same.
Hence, many people are expecting the Persistence Method to apply to the coming spring and summer - meaning warm and dry.
Unfortunately it won't be the case.
As the Eastern Seaboard continues to dry out under crisp westerly winds and clear sunny skies, it’s hard to imagine that we’re staring down a wetter than normal end to spring and summer.
This year’s La Niña was forecast to arrive much earlier, but the dynamics at play between the ocean and atmosphere took time to develop, though they are finally starting to bear fruit.
Stronger than normal trade winds over the past month have been slowly upwelling cold water across the eastern Pacific Ocean which is now making its way further west. In the image below, the blue 'tongue' of cold water - which is a characteristic of La Niña - can clearly be seen spanning the central and eastern Pacific.
This development has finally dropped the critical Niño 3.4 monitoring region below the 0.8°C threshold required by the BOM.* If it stays there for three months, La Niña is declared.
The writing, however, is on the wall.
With continued trade-wind activity and a plentiful source of cold water sitting beneath the surface, we can expect this region to stay below thresholds as we round out spring and head into summer.
On paper, it only looks to be a weak La Niña, but as local meteorologists are learning, the temperature of the surrounding ocean - which drives local climate - will also play its part and lift the relative intensity, especially across the coastal ribbon.
What does this mean for Australia?
As cool water surfaces along the equator, warm water is currently piling up across the Western Pacific and Coral Sea and now starting to extend south in the East Australian Current.
All the clear blue water Queensland and New South Wales surfers have seen this last week..? That's the beginning of it.
This will lead to increased convection and rainfall across the north-east of the country, extending down the Eastern Seaboard, with it really kicking in from November.
The below chart shows the precipitation forecast for December to February, with the dark green indicating wetter than normal conditions for much of eastern Australia.
As for the surf, I think we all know what to expect. If not, cast your mind back to the summers before last.
On the East Coast there was an increase in easterly trade energy as the subtropical ridge shifted south, also subduing the typical north to north-east wind patterns. Local troughiness will likely bring lighter local winds to southern NSW with a slight southerly bias.
In the southern states, swells from a more southerly angle are expected, albeit with less size plus winds from the eastern quadrant - which is good for the exposed beaches.
In the west, it'll make for a summer of clean, hot, but small surf.
Things still have while to play out but we’ll continue to monitor and provide updates on these developments.
// CRAIG BROKENSHA
*NOAA uses a different threshold whilch was reached at the start of the month. Hence US meteorologists calling El Nino/La Nina are slightly out of synch with Australian colleagues.
Comments
Thanks for the update Craig. Bring on the wet spring/summer is say.
Can you please provide the legend that goes with your SST anamoly chart above please.
Yep, here you go Don, all the charts are here as well.. https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/5km/index_5km_ssta.php
Thanks Craig
I was just thinking how lovely this period without rain has been and reminiscing about the drought years, oh well.
Winds from the east + dead whale = hmmmm
Bring on the tradeswells.
Given the IOD is expected to remain neutral, is it safe to assume that the SAM will be one of the primary drivers as to whether the EC gets drenched or not?
It has been uber dry here on the GC and my lawns are looking a little worse for wear so I cannot wait until Huey brings it down!
Yep, indeed.
So in Adelaide SSW swells and ENE to NE winds?
Hopefully. Likely to be more E/NE mornings compared to the standard SE-S/SE blow.
So as far as south Oz is concerned south swells with south east winds ? Fuck, since the 20219/20 fires that seems like every summer now , shit winds for the south coast , shit swell direction for the mid …
West looks best ….
A bit more easterly bias than true south-east if all goes to plan.
yep. i usually score decent waves when i go back to SA for christmas/summer. these last few years have been... THE WORST. SW/SE winds and almost no groundswell. brutal.
the only time i've scored waves there in the past 4-5 years is the easter break and the obligatory massive storm swell that seems to land around that time.
But as Nick points out, it's the swell that will be the problem.
Cheers Craig , appreciate your work
It’s summer - the cycle stays relatively the same.
What is going on at present down here in Victoria is miles from La Nina. Giant swells every couples of weeks with persistent solid swells in between, and west winds blowing a gale. Haven't got near the beaches since I don't know when and who knows what the banks will be like when it finally abates. I've even regressed to surfing WP which is tragic. Are you saying that it will be a gradual break from this or it will happen quite abruptly?
sounds good for consistent waves in the Sydney region?
i feel like these last few la-nina summers have been way above par with actual swell and very few days of 2 foot/6 sec NE windswell.
I can’t remember the Summer before last…so for Manly, we’re looking at a wet start to Summer with onshore winds and not much swell….is that about right?
Pete, Craig might correct me, but it's more along the lines of fewer blue skies, more rain, less NE seabreezes, and fairly consistent easterly tradeswell, punctuated by the odd bigger swell also from the E/NE.
Unless you're into sunbaking, I reckon that's a good outlook.
Phew, I wrong that read then
Yep Stu nailed it. More cleaner days than a usual summer at Manly but with less north-east windswell events and more so longer range east-northeast trade swell.
Nooooo. Not again. Another summer of hectic sidewhore winds.
This is terrible news Craig.
Off to the naughty corner for you!
I can't remember what i did yesterday, I got no chance of remembering what happed 2 summers ago. Was it good?
4 summers in a row of absolute junk down here. Hard to erase from the memory unfortunately. :(
What does this mean for the few weeks around late July/early August 2025 on the Mid North Coast of NSW?
PS - taking the piss.
Yeah nah, but seriously?
All that signals another super consistent summer of b-grade trade-swells for the sub-tropics- which is great. Surf every day in warm water.
Been some interesting natural signs around the last month. Despite a truckload of northerlies and green water (usually cold upwelled water) the inshore SST's have remained fairly warm- which has to be a signal from the EAC responding to the active trade-flow.
Tuna have been regularly caught inshore in the last 2 months, which is another sign of an active EAC, and unseasonal for Aug/Sep.
This morning I watched a full bust-up from long tail Tuna just out the back of the break.
Everything looked spring-like with the S swell and N winds except the water was blue and tuna were busting up in it.
Let's just hope the Northern Rivers gets spared another catastrophic flood.
what r the chances of "dear diary " greenmount episode 2. was my fav article in the last year(:
Almost time for my yearly lap of the Superbank.
VG (:
Thanks Steve very informative.
Northerlies kicking in a month earlier this year I reckon
Seasons are out the window.
We had a heatwave in August.
Blowflys, bushfires & Total Fire Ban days have arrived in Sept. Ocean 20C.
Its so hot & dry now, all the snakes are moving down the gullies looking for water... & nookie.
Offshore & long period winter south swells in spring..
with furious fifies roaring up into the fourties & beyond. Batten down the hatches Tazzie folks.
ECL next weekend
https://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/charts/gfs/aus?chartCode=prmsl_thk...
Sounds like Feb / March rain may shift forward to December. The bush and garden needs a drink.
Cyclones in January?
https://www.ausstormscience.com/tropical-cyclones/historic-tropical-cycl...